Silicon Investor - CFZ E-Wiggle Workspace

[skinowski] So far looks like an Expanded Flat correction. Which calls for a bullish resolu...

skinowski — 6/10/2026 3:02:27 PM

So far looks like an Expanded Flat correction. Which calls for a bullish resolution. Of course, that is unless Mr Market decides to morph it into something else… :)

[skinowski] OK, someone fed the Wayne Whaley’s study (in my post above) asking for an analys...

skinowski — 6/8/2026 7:58:47 PM

OK, someone fed the Wayne Whaley’s study (in my post above) asking for an analysis of the data, including a forward looking plot based on the data. Interesting.

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The historical data (34 cases since 1950) shows a clear bullish edge. Avg forward returns: +1.0% (1wk), +2.4% (4wk), +7.3% (13wk, 30/34 up), +11.2% (26wk), +17.3% (1yr). June cases notably strong.

From SPY $737 (Jun 5 close), expected path points to ~$791 by mid-Sep and ~$865 in… pic.twitter.com/HMeHklH2Lx
— Grok (@grok) June 8, 2026

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[skinowski] [X] $SPX - Remember, we were likely to have a pullback at the yearly R1(7582) s...

skinowski — 6/8/2026 7:47:12 AM

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$SPX - Remember, we were likely to have a pullback at the yearly R1(7582) similar to the pullback we had at the yearly R1(6427) in 2025. That's exactly what happened this week. Next week we'll find out if SPX resumes the rally as it did in 2025 or it turns into something bearish. pic.twitter.com/ItvWJR6wU7
— CyclesFan (@CyclesFan) June 7, 2026

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$QQQ - Last week we were headed to the 2nd yearly resistance at 786. This week's action put it into question. We have a yearly support at 700. A close below 700 will shift the odds in favor of an intermediate term top being in. A weekly close below the 10 week MA will confirm it. pic.twitter.com/N28hjUZLFN
— CyclesFan (@CyclesFan) June 7, 2026

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[skinowski] Interesting that all of the particularly positive occasions (highlighted in blue...

skinowski — 6/8/2026 7:38:02 AM

Interesting that all of the particularly positive occasions (highlighted in blue) happened in June.

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WHEN A TWO PCT DOWN DAY PRESENTS ITSELF ON THE BACK OF A TEN PCT QTR

On Friday, June 5th, the S&P experienced a 2.64% Down day which occurred on the back of a 11.03% Qtr (13 wks).

Since 1950, I see 34 prior occasions in which a Down 2% Day occurred on the back of a trailing… pic.twitter.com/zI1aGyvUbY
— Wayne Whaley (@WayneWhaley1136) June 7, 2026

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[skinowski] [X] $Gold - Closed below its 200 day MA for the 1st time since October 2023. Th...

skinowski — 6/6/2026 8:48:43 AM

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$Gold - Closed below its 200 day MA for the 1st time since October 2023. The odds favor a retest of the March low at 4100 next week. If gold recaptures the 200 day MA without dropping to 4100 that will be a sign of strength. pic.twitter.com/pgTHFuL0pC
— CyclesFan (@CyclesFan) June 6, 2026

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$Silver - Hit its 200 day MA on Friday but closed above it. A close below the 200 DMA will lead to a retest of the March low at 61. Unlike silver gold closed below its 200 DMA so we'll find out next week if gold is leading down or it was a fake out and silver will drag it higher. pic.twitter.com/xnncCBdq0I
— CyclesFan (@CyclesFan) June 6, 2026

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$GDX - Closed the week just 10 cents above the March low. There are 2 potential scenarios:
The bullish one - A double bottom.
The bearish one - Wave C is still in progress. The target is the yearly pivot at 70.63 which is 10% lower from Friday's close. pic.twitter.com/A34YuqvczS
— CyclesFan (@CyclesFan) June 6, 2026

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[skinowski] Words of wisdom, Robert. Thank you. NDX is down >5%. SPX, almost 3%. We’ve ...

skinowski — 6/5/2026 4:17:54 PM

Words of wisdom, Robert. Thank you.

NDX is down >5%. SPX, almost 3%. We’ve seen worse :)

Have been stepping aside. Ready to step back in when the time comes.

Is this the start of anything major? It’s possible. But, impossible to know at this time.

Follow the rules - and the trend. Here’s to having many more positive days than negative! :)

[skinowski] Interesting… pretty picture [X] There is nothing more technically bullish than...

skinowski — 6/5/2026 4:04:29 PM

Interesting… pretty picture

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There is nothing more technically bullish than a 40-year resistance level turning into major support.

That is exactly where gold miners sit today.

Act accordingly.https://t.co/7Y87Aem7Ag pic.twitter.com/xXC16MPjcF
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) June 4, 2026

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[robert b furman] Good Morning Ski, That does rhyme with the Dot.com 1998 to early 2000 bubble. ...

robert b furman — 6/5/2026 9:18:41 AM

Good Morning Ski,

That does rhyme with the Dot.com 1998 to early 2000 bubble.

Breadth declined as everything with association with the "sure to be ubiquitous" internet went parabolic.

Excess or spare capacity may also be what to look for.

I remember yje CEO of CSCO (John Chambers) taking a 53 BILLION WRITEDOWN on his many acquisitions as he decried "ORDERS HAVE FALLEN OFF A CLIFF".

Those who became very wealthy were those who fought back greed and scaled out slowly but early as prices shot up up up in a parabolic fashion.

Markets still fluctuate but have similarities as long as greed and fear become part of the human race's participation.

Thank You Mr. Elliott.

Bob

[skinowski] After a strong rally in the spring, the odds for the next 7-9 months are positiv...

skinowski — 6/5/2026 7:34:28 AM

After a strong rally in the spring, the odds for the next 7-9 months are positive

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A sharp spring rally can make everyone look for the payback.

The S&P 500 gained 16.1% during April and May. Before this year, April/May gains of +10% or more happened only 8 times.

Over the next 7 months, the S&P 500 was higher 88% of the time. Median return: 16.5%.

Sample… pic.twitter.com/z9j0575Fxb
— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) June 5, 2026

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[skinowski] Take-offs and blow-offs could look similarly? [X] This can happen also as acce...

skinowski — 6/5/2026 6:29:28 AM

Take-offs and blow-offs could look similarly?

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This can happen also as acceleration phase, usually late stage.

Your chart is too short, but on $NDX such acceleration is seen in 1998 and 1999 pic.twitter.com/aQKskDELoJ
— allechirap (@allechirap) June 4, 2026

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[skinowski] It’s a good habit to monitor sector performance… for more than one reason. [X] ...

skinowski — 6/4/2026 7:15:32 AM

It’s a good habit to monitor sector performance… for more than one reason.

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The S&P 500 keeps making new highs while most stocks quietly fall.

May logged 5 divergence days, the largest monthly cluster since 1998.

The tape keeps getting thinner. https://t.co/8CGOK1jTXo pic.twitter.com/ER1RobI4nE
— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) June 4, 2026

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[skinowski] This man was a genius. He was probably the best ever. But, something was missin...

skinowski — 6/3/2026 12:37:56 PM

This man was a genius. He was probably the best ever. But, something was missing - sense of balance? Discipline? I say this because, apparently, by the time he died, he didn’t have very much to his name. He knew there was a problem - in his book, he describes how he set aside some money for his family - and his wife was instructed not to give him a single dime out of those funds. Sounds like he was addicted to action.

He also describes a long period when he kept losing - no matter what he tried to do. This interesting thing was - he never stopped. He kept playing big positions until he was out of money.

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Jesse Livermore pic.twitter.com/W2a4LFAo35
— True market Leader (@TmarketL) June 3, 2026

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[skinowski] Looks like IPO’s can be purchased later at significant discounts [X] An excell...

skinowski — 6/3/2026 11:15:51 AM

Looks like IPO’s can be purchased later at significant discounts

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An excellent place to invoke:
Jay’s Trading Maxim #179: There is nothing more dangerous to your portfolio than an “exciting” idea. https://t.co/o32DgCKOAZ
— Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel) June 3, 2026

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Sentimentrader: Aggregate model still bullish

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Trend-Following 101: The @Sentimentrader Aggregate Signal Model remains firmly in favorable territory.
Jay’s Trading Maxim #37: Recognizing the trend right now is worth far more than a thousand predictions regarding what will happen next. pic.twitter.com/CuJVtaZmGg
— Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel) June 3, 2026

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[skinowski] Edit

skinowski — 6/2/2026 1:26:16 PM

[skinowski] The way I understand it, Qone0, in a bear market, the shorts are right - until t...

skinowski — 6/2/2026 12:23:46 PM

The way I understand it, Qone0, in a bear market, the shorts are right - until they’re wrong.

OTOH, near market tops, they’re wrong - until they’re right.

So, ultimately, near market tops the shorts will prove right - as the market is topping. But until that time, they’re just part of what people call the Wall of Worry. They keep shorting - and keep getting squeezed.

But overall, shorting all time highs is probably not a good strategy - unless the trader knows exactly what he’s doing. And, I doubt that most shorts are expert market timers.

[Qone0] Context, if the high reading occurs during a correction that is bullish. If it o...

Qone0 — 6/2/2026 10:00:46 AM

Context, if the high reading occurs during a correction that is bullish. If it occurs at ATH it is bearish. The 2008 peak is a danger zone. IMO.

[skinowski] This is not bearish [X] Short-Selling at 15-Year High (BBG) The median short-...

skinowski — 6/2/2026 9:30:43 AM

This is not bearish

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Short-Selling at 15-Year High (BBG)

The median short-interest for S&P stocks has reached the highest in over 15 years.

"Elevated short interest also suggests that short squeezes will become more frequent, as vividly demonstrated by the recent rally in software names." pic.twitter.com/QF4Vp3S7iU
— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) June 2, 2026

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[skinowski] [X] This is NOT a "Sell" signal IMO. However, it IS an "Open your mind to the p...

skinowski — 5/30/2026 11:33:05 AM

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This is NOT a "Sell" signal IMO. However, it IS an "Open your mind to the possibility of selling" signal. Also, an excellent place to invoke...
Jay's Trading Maxim #18: Follow the trend, but DO NOT fall in love with the trend. @sentimentrader pic.twitter.com/3RnkP71OTz
— Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel) May 30, 2026

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Jay’s Trading Maxim #101: Beware the trap door at the top of the escalator. @sentimentrader https://t.co/64V5JaMxgv
— Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel) May 29, 2026

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[skinowski] [X] Martin’s Betrayal, The Fed’s Benedict Arnold. Can Kevin Warsh undo what Wi...

skinowski — 5/30/2026 9:04:32 AM

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Martin’s Betrayal, The Fed’s Benedict Arnold.

Can Kevin Warsh undo what William McChesney Martin set in motion?

That is the real question. Truman called Martin a traitor for a reason. He wanted the Federal Reserve to help an elected government achieve the nation’s goals. Martin… pic.twitter.com/4ERBrjNjre
— James E. Thorne (@DrJStrategy) May 30, 2026

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Martin’s Betrayal, The Fed’s Benedict Arnold.

Can Kevin Warsh undo what William McChesney Martin set in motion?

That is the real question. Truman called Martin a traitor for a reason. He wanted the Federal Reserve to help an elected government achieve the nation’s goals. Martin gave him a Fed that claimed the right to judge those goals, restrain them, and, when necessary, veto them. Martin is the Benedict Arnold of this story, the man who helped turn the money power of the republic into a rival throne.

The fairy tale says the Fed rose above politics and became a sanctuary of neutral expertise. Nonsense. The Fed was never meant to be a monetary Vatican. It was given insulation, not sovereignty. It was supposed to price money, not decide the direction of the nation.

During World War II and the Bretton Woods years, the older American understanding still held. The Treasury led. The Fed supported. Finance served statecraft. Money and credit were tools of national purpose, not abstractions managed by a clerisy.

Then Martin turned the hinge. He was Wall Street to the bone, a former president of the New York Stock Exchange, and the son of a Federal Reserve insider. Truman thought he was elevating a Treasury man. Instead, he elevated a man bred to believe that finance should rule politics, not serve it.

That was the betrayal. Martin helped break the old Treasury-Fed order and then spent years canonizing the new religion of “independence.” What had once been an instrument of government became an arbiter over government. The Fed ceased to ask how it could help the country achieve its aims and began asking whether those aims had its permission.

Nixon finished what Martin started. Faced with the collapse of Bretton Woods and the inflationary disorder of the 1970s, he could have reasserted political control over the money power. Instead, he surrendered. He let central-bank independence harden from bureaucratic arrangement into national dogma. Nixon did not just close the gold window. He turned his back on Hamilton.

That surrender still defines us. The Fed no longer confines itself to setting rates. It hints against crypto, moralizes about climate, and carries itself as if it holds a civilizational veto over the evolving economy. Why should an unelected bureaucracy get to decide whether a new financial architecture may emerge, whether industrial policy is acceptable, or whether the nation’s priorities are sufficiently enlightened?

Yes, the Fed should set rates with operational independence. No serious person wants monetary policy run by daily political whim. But that is a far cry from giving a caste of Fed lifers, Keynesian bureaucrats, and self-anointed experts the right to obstruct the national purpose. A central bank can independently calibrate the price of money while still serving the country that created it.

That is why Warsh matters. He is not trying to reform the independent Fed. He is trying to cut it back down to size. His mission is to reverse the Martin settlement, subordinate the Fed once more to the Treasury, and restore something like Hamilton’s national bank, a central bank that serves strategy instead of posing as its master.

That is the through line. Martin betrayed the old order. Nixon ratified the betrayal. Warsh means to undo it.

The only question is whether Washington still has the nerve to make the Fed an instrument of the republic again.

[skinowski] [X] $TLT - After bottoming near the October 2023 low last week it had bullish f...

skinowski — 5/30/2026 9:03:27 AM

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$TLT - After bottoming near the October 2023 low last week it had bullish follow through this week. Closed the week just under the 10 week MA. A weekly close above the 10 week MA will confirm that it made an intermediate term low and probably the low for the year last week. pic.twitter.com/4Gje01KKl9
— CyclesFan (@CyclesFan) May 30, 2026

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$Silver monthly - Price is still above the 10 month MA so a major top hasn't been confirmed yet but I don't expect it to make a new ATH this year. I expect it to trade between 61 and 94(yearly pivot and yearly R1) for the rest of the year. pic.twitter.com/HpdVfZ3wTd
— CyclesFan (@CyclesFan) May 30, 2026

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$Gold - The month ended with a bearish crossover on the TSI but price found support at the 10 month MA again, so a major top hasn't been confirmed yet. We may see a bounce to 5000 before the next down leg. I expect it to drop to 4100 again by October and confirm a major top. pic.twitter.com/dJ8J95SMyu
— CyclesFan (@CyclesFan) May 30, 2026

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[skinowski] 9 positive week streaks aren’t necessarily bullish short term. 2 cases have no...

skinowski — 5/30/2026 8:13:16 AM

9 positive week streaks aren’t necessarily bullish short term.

2 cases have no statistical significance - but the worst outcomes - and negative years - happened when the market was red 3 months later. This time, that would be by the end of August.

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Lots of red on the left, especially for the first 5 trading days. Nice study. https://t.co/NPeGuUQj3G
— Olskis1 (@Olskis1) May 30, 2026

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[skinowski] Interesting - but note that the chart is just for illustration, it’s decades old...

skinowski — 5/29/2026 12:52:02 PM

Interesting - but note that the chart is just for illustration, it’s decades old.

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This is worth remembering just in case inflation does NOT cool off. Repeating now...
Jay’s Trading Maxim #13: There’s always a bull market somewhere (Pssst: Even if inflation is soaring). Our job as investors is to find it. https://t.co/3VB3oVGmXl
— Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel) May 29, 2026

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IWM outperformed during and after the Y2K Bear market - and then, for some years after the low of the GFC. Was showing some strength for the past year or so.

[skinowski] A word from Macro. [X] "The public buys the most at the top and the least at t...

skinowski — 5/29/2026 9:32:24 AM

A word from Macro.

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"The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom." — Bob Farrell

Time to shine. pic.twitter.com/OHLRySjEuZ
— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) May 29, 2026

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Sentiment here is shifting to "easy days ahead"...
Thinking practically:
Seems far better to (1) look for new ideas, and be pleasantly surprised by "everything up" — versus (2) calling for easy times, overstaying crowded themes, and getting wrecked by a regime shift.
We'll see.
— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) May 29, 2026

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[skinowski] Henry Constanza (RIP) who for many years moderated the EW board - did the same t...

skinowski — 5/27/2026 9:17:16 AM

Henry Constanza (RIP) who for many years moderated the EW board - did the same thing. He held other positions as well - but most of his trading was in - and around - AAPL. When expected a rally, he would buy more - as well as calls. When the stock would start a pullback, Henry would sell calls and buy puts. He managed this position for decades.

Regrettably, back then I was too stupid to learn from a smart man. I mean, I’ve learned from him a lot - but not about being patient - and to hold on to a good thing once you’re lucky enough to find it.

[J.B.C.] You probably heard James Woods story: He at some point a while back had an epip...

J.B.C. — 5/27/2026 7:15:26 AM

You probably heard James Woods story: He at some point a while back had an epiphany and plowed all his investments into one stock…AAPL. Sells some when he needs money.

Few actors are that smart.

My wife was an investment advisor at Fidelity before we retired, She told me doctors also were generally terrible investors.

I was cleaning up my mailbox this morning and saw your post again and thought of the James Woods story.

[skinowski] Recently, Jay Kaeppel posted something about Bruce Kovner - a trader who started...

skinowski — 5/26/2026 8:26:06 PM

Recently, Jay Kaeppel posted something about Bruce Kovner - a trader who started out with borrowed $3000 - and traded those funds up to a fortune of 80 million.

I just noticed another mention of this person - and, while at it, found a post showing the track record of some of the top traders in history (Kovner being one of them).

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“Whenever I enter a position, I have a predetermined stop. That is the only way I can sleep. I know where I’m getting out before I get in. The position size on a trade is determined by the stop, and the stop is determined on a technical basis.”

— Bruce Kovner pic.twitter.com/DFfHhJtdCZ
— Steve Burns (@SJosephBurns) February 2, 2026

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If Warren Buffett is truly the greatest investor of all time how do you explain these numbers?

Michael Marcus: 120% CAGR over 10 years

Richard Dennis: 120% CAGR for 19 years

Bruce Kovner: 87% CAGR over a decade

Ed Seykota: 60% CAGR for 30 years

William O'Neil: 40% CAGR for… pic.twitter.com/wnY8l8N7lI
— Market Rebellion (@RebellioMarket) May 24, 2026

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[skinowski] Posting fwiw… no opinion. Why not? Not sure. Maybe because I don’t really think...

skinowski — 5/26/2026 9:24:15 AM

Posting fwiw… no opinion. Why not? Not sure. Maybe because I don’t really think about these things. But, sounds nice :)

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Food for thought.

Trump’s hot‑run, supply‑side America 7% nominal GDP, AI‑driven productivity, and 100% expensing, turns the S&P 500 into a 10–14% earnings machine. Add a Peace Dividend.

By 2031, $600–$650 EPS at 25x doesn’t scream bubble; it quietly implies a 15,000–16,000…
— James E. Thorne (@DrJStrategy) May 26, 2026

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[skinowski] [X] Let’s be honest. Warsh at the Fed. Kevin Warsh’s arrival at the Federal ...

skinowski — 5/22/2026 11:24:02 AM

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Let’s be honest.

Warsh at the Fed.

Kevin Warsh’s arrival at the Federal Reserve is not a personnel change. It is a regime change attempt inside an institution built to prevent one. A supply-sider now runs a central bank hard-wired for Keynesian demand management, and the… https://t.co/ONlZHsVzfd
— James E. Thorne (@DrJStrategy) May 22, 2026

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Let’s be honest.

Warsh at the Fed.

Kevin Warsh’s arrival at the Federal Reserve is not a personnel change. It is a regime change attempt inside an institution built to prevent one. A supply-sider now runs a central bank hard-wired for Keynesian demand management, and the machine is already resisting the new code.

The next mistake is visible in plain sight. Keynesians on Wall Street and inside the Fed are treating a supply shock as if it were a demand boom and calling for tighter money. This is dogma masquerading as seriousness. A chokepoint in the Strait of Hormuz, a jump in energy prices, and a cost shock rolling through transport, food, and manufacturing are not evidence of overheated demand. They are evidence of a damaged supply side.

Monetary policy cannot reopen a shipping lane. It cannot pump more oil. It cannot repeal geopolitics. It can only crush demand somewhere else, usually with a lag, and usually in the most interest-rate-sensitive corners of the economy first, housing, commercial real estate, capital spending, and durables. Those sectors did not close the Strait. They are simply first in line to pay for the Fed’s intellectual mistakes.

That is the Keynesian reflex in its purest form. Every price spike becomes “inflation.” Every inflation scare requires a rate move. Every rate move is advertised as proof of resolve. It is nonsense. A change in relative prices caused by a supply shock is not the same thing as an inflationary spiral. Pretending otherwise is how central banks turn an external shock into a domestic recession.

Machiavelli explained why change is so hard. The innovator makes enemies of everyone who did well under the old order and wins only lukewarm defenders among those who might benefit from the new. Christensen gave the same warning in corporate language. Incumbent institutions kill disruptive change because their processes, incentives, and prestige are built around the existing model.

That is the real problem Warsh faces. The resistance is not incidental. It is structural.

The test for Warsh is not whether he can sound tough on television. It is whether he can resist the Wall Street catechism that every supply shock must be met with tighter money. If he hikes rates into a supply-driven price spike to prove his anti-inflation credentials, he will not have broken with the Keynesian regime. He will have submitted to it.

This is not the 1970s. Expectations are not unanchored, and the productive economy is already scarred by years of policy excess, fiscal decadence, and institutional bias.

The hope is that Warsh understands the difference between inflation and a supply shock, ignores the Keynesian pundits, and refuses to compound one policy error with another.

[skinowski] “Buy when there is blood in the streets” is a known market saying. Consumer con...

skinowski — 5/21/2026 9:04:42 AM

“Buy when there is blood in the streets” is a known market saying.

Consumer confidence in Germany at desperation levels seems to pay pretty well, too.

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Sentiment plummets, then stocks rally. Same as it ever was. Also a terrific opportunity to invoke:
Jay’s Trading Maxim #188: The one thing that NEVER changes in the market is human nature.@sentimentrader https://t.co/A7WC3cDrei
— Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel) May 21, 2026

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[Alan Smithee] Yeah wish I’d owned AAPL from December ‘80 (IPO). That should not have prevented...

Alan Smithee — 5/20/2026 5:11:05 PM

Yeah wish I’d owned AAPL from December ‘80 (IPO). That should not have prevented me from buying it in the 90’s, 00’s , 10’s or even now. Good stocks (companies) are hard to hold down!”

Great sentiment.

I recall a time back in 1997 or so I thought about buying AAPL. That was the year Jobs came back to the company.

Woulda, coulda, shoulda.

My Secretary at the Seattle law firm in 1989 had a boyfriend who worked at MSFT. I left the firm but ran into her a few years later and she mentioned, “yeah, Neil is the first millionaire I’ve known.”

[skinowski] I’ve seen this chart before. We shall see - if gold makes new highs, I’m sure w...

skinowski — 5/20/2026 3:37:58 PM

I’ve seen this chart before. We shall see - if gold makes new highs, I’m sure we’ll hear from this poster. That would mean his down trend line was broken.

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IT'S COMING - IT'S A QUESTION OF WHEN, NOT IF 👇 pic.twitter.com/qIxJGDT6rM
— Northstar (@NorthstarCharts) May 20, 2026

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[robert b furman] HI Ski, A thousand recs on that post! Bob

robert b furman — 5/20/2026 8:41:34 AM

[J.B.C.] I do Point and Figure, I saw a chart that the pattern intrigued me. I sent the...

J.B.C. — 5/19/2026 2:15:03 PM

I do Point and Figure, I saw a chart that the pattern intrigued me. I sent the chart to a friend, who wrote back:

“Wished I owned it 5 years ago.”

That response made me think, so I responded to him:

“Yeah wish I’d owned AAPL from December ‘80 (IPO). That should not have prevented me from buying it in the 90’s, 00’s , 10’s or even now. Good stocks (companies) are hard to hold down!”

Nuff said.

[skinowski] Gold, BTC, Silver, rates…. Big picture with some technicals. [X] Japan Dumps $...

skinowski — 5/19/2026 1:04:57 PM

Gold, BTC, Silver, rates…. Big picture with some technicals.

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Japan Dumps $29.6B US Treasuries as $1.2T Debt Crisis Explodes - Gareth Soloway

Watch now: https://t.co/qMK22X5qsA #gold #stocks #economy #finance @DanielaCambone pic.twitter.com/DjRJ74CQ1o
— ITM Trading (@ITMTrading) May 18, 2026

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[Clam digger] GDX testing support 200 day sma. High price of energy makes it a wee bit dear t...

Clam digger — 5/19/2026 10:57:22 AM

GDX testing support 200 day sma. High price of energy makes it a wee bit dear to extract the metal.

[skinowski] GLD is trading under the early May low. Next is a test of the March low - and if...

skinowski — 5/19/2026 9:55:45 AM

GLD is trading under the early May low. Next is a test of the March low - and if that one gets broken, it will begin to look like a down trend. We already have a lower high and a lower low - adding another round would be bearish. It also would mean that the yellow metal is trading below its 200dma.

So, for the intermediate term scenario to remain active, it’s time for a U-turn.

[skinowski] About Bitcoin [X] For the record. Bitcoin and the metagame investors are mis...

skinowski — 5/19/2026 7:04:08 AM

About Bitcoin

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For the record.

Bitcoin and the metagame investors are missing.

Bitcoin’s biggest risk is not volatility. It is that investors keep staring at the ticker and miss the regime change happening behind it.

Investors still obsess over Bitcoin’s daily price action when they should…
— James E. Thorne (@DrJStrategy) May 19, 2026

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And this: price increases due to supply constraints will not be “cured” by raising rates.

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Food for thought.

The Fed’s Next Blunder: Fighting a Supply Shock With Keynesian Dogma

The Federal Reserve and Wall Street are about to make the same mistake twice. They are treating a supply shock as if it were a demand boom, and prescribing medicine that will only make the… pic.twitter.com/gg1f1ZRLQE
— James E. Thorne (@DrJStrategy) May 19, 2026

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For the record.

Bitcoin and the metagame investors are missing.

Bitcoin’s biggest risk is not volatility. It is that investors keep staring at the ticker and miss the regime change happening behind it.

Investors still obsess over Bitcoin’s daily price action when they should be watching the metagame instead.

The real contest is not whether BTC is 10 per cent higher or lower this week, but who sets the rules that will determine whether it ends up embedded in the next monetary system or exiled to the fringe. In Bitcoin, the metagame is the fight over regulation, the risk-free curve and reserve architecture, the next Bretton Woods, in which Bitcoin is a design lever for the system rather than a meme for speculators.

Day-to-day volatility is just surface noise on a deeper contest over whether a dollar-centric, higher-yield, digitally native order absorbs Bitcoin as pristine collateral and settlement infrastructure, or tries to exclude it and hand that frontier to rivals.

Yes, Bitcoin is digital gold and a powerful store of value. But stopping there is comforting and wrong. A credibly finite, bearer asset that can move globally without central permission is an explicit challenge to a model built on elastic, centrally managed money and opaque credit creation. It is not just another risk asset; it is a standing referendum on the credibility of the fiat regime and the willingness of states to live with an asset they cannot print, haircut or easily confiscate. Underneath that challenge sits the ledger itself. Blockchain is the most significant innovation in record keeping since double-entry bookkeeping displaced the abacus, replacing fallible, local ledgers with a tamper-resistant, globally auditable record and changing who controls the books, who can create credit against them and how trust is enforced.

This is where politics stops being background noise and becomes the plot. The Biden–Warren–Powell era of suppressing crypto through enforcement, delay and regulatory fog is over. President Trump has made it explicit that he wants the United States to become the crypto capital of the world, and a Warsh-led Fed that is openly pro-Bitcoin would reinforce that shift. The project is not to overthrow the dollar but to use digital assets and blockchain rails to support King Dollar, to build a Bretton Woods 2.0 that makes the dollar higher-yielding, more programmable and harder to dislodge.

If the CLARITY Act passes and creates a serious federal framework for digital assets, regulation stops being a constraint and becomes a weapon: a 1990s-style Telecommunications Act for digital finance, unleashing capital, infrastructure and credit creation onto these rails. In that world, Bitcoin is no longer a hobby for libertarians. It becomes part of the default collateral stack in a higher-yield, dollar-centric system that entrenches, rather than undermines, American monetary hegemony.

Everyone buys Bitcoin at the price they deserve.

[Jack of All Trades] GEX on Friday had another spike high. If these continue we should just keep mak...

Jack of All Trades — 5/18/2026 9:03:07 AM

GEX on Friday had another spike high. If these continue we should just keep making new ATHs.

JMO

[skinowski] Big Pic offers room for optimism. Overlay it with some trend following rules - ...

skinowski — 5/17/2026 8:41:14 AM

Big Pic offers room for optimism. Overlay it with some trend following rules - and you should be OK.

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Ignore the noise.

S&P 500 hits 10,000 in 2027.

Nice to know Wall St is finally catching up.

My chart is from a 2020 presentation. pic.twitter.com/TKIA9arFA7
— James E. Thorne (@DrJStrategy) May 17, 2026

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[skinowski] As per post to which I’m replying, Wayne Whaley found that after the market make...

skinowski — 5/16/2026 9:39:57 AM

As per post to which I’m replying, Wayne Whaley found that after the market makes new 12 month highs in the first week of May, the period from May 15 to 22 tends to be bearish.

So, yesterday’s weakness was right on “schedule”.

Let’s see what happens in the first 4 days of next week.

[skinowski] James T has an interesting narrative of the current situation - but what matters...

skinowski — 5/16/2026 8:45:00 AM

James T has an interesting narrative of the current situation - but what matters is the price action. CNN Sentiment isn’t bearish - it’s at 63, which is in the “Greed” category.

The Iran war is a factor - but, mostly in the sense of potential short term volatility.

He’s right about the way permabears go about business.

My own approach for now - more bonds, plus some extra cash. Otherwise, business as usual.

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Food for thought.

Ignore the Bear Porn

The S&P just tagged 7,500 with bottom‑up targets pointing toward 8,250, and the doomer industrial complex still insists we’re one headline away from financial extinction. They traded a modest 10% pullback like it was the dress rehearsal… pic.twitter.com/oPBYqUNzyZ
— James E. Thorne (@DrJStrategy) May 16, 2026

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Food for thought.

Ignore the Bear Porn

The S&P just tagged 7,500 with bottom-up targets pointing toward 8,250, and the doomer industrial complex still insists we’re one headline away from financial extinction. They traded a modest 10% pullback like it was the dress rehearsal for 2008, then quietly disappeared when the market delivered one of the fastest V-shaped recoveries in history and went on to make fresh highs.

The story never changes, only the excuse list does.

In a single quarter, they sold investors a “private credit crisis,” declared software structurally doomed by AI, and promoted a Middle East war narrative built around a catastrophically shut Strait of Hormuz. Reality? Credit bent but didn’t break, software is adapting instead of evaporating, the strait is open, and risk assets shook off the scare far faster than the pundit class could draft their next bearish thread.

The market processed the shock, repriced, and moved on; the doomers simply moved the goalposts.

Meanwhile, fundamentals have the audacity to keep improving. Earnings march higher, and bottom-up targets now point to an equity market that is not priced for fantasy but for solid, compounding cash flows.

A long-overdue digital-asset clarity act is finally on the books, yet much of Wall Street still dismisses Bitcoin as a “scam,” recycling a decade-old insult because they can’t be bothered to update their priors. It is less analysis than superstition, dressed up in finance jargon.

Layer on geopolitics, and the gap between narrative and reality widens. President Trump and his team gets no credit for brokering de-escalation and energy-security arrangements that help keep the global system functioning, even as another terrorist is being taken off the board in Africa in real time.

The same commentators who obsess over tail risks refuse to acknowledge when those tails are actively being managed, hedged, or neutralized. Stability is treated as an accident; instability is always assumed to be permanent.

This is the core tell of the modern doomer: they are never graded on outcomes, only on how scary they sounded at the time. They were wrong on the “collapse” of private credit, wrong on AI instantly vaporizing software economics, wrong on a sustained oil chokehold from Hormuz, and they will be just as wrong if their new fetish is a reflexive 20% crash because of a Warsh taking over the Fed. They do not rethink; they rebrand.

What passes for “prudence” in this crowd is really just performative pessimistic “bear porn” for an audience that confuses anxiety with insight. They sell dread, one crisis costume at a time, while price action and cash flows quietly keep contradicting the script.

The job of serious investors is not to react to the fear merchants; it is to notice that the world is messy, risks are real, and yet, somehow, 7,500 on the S&P is telling you the doom machine is not the one in charge.

S&P 500 Target for 2027 10,000. Ignore the Bear Porn.

Have a nice weekend.

[skinowski] He’s right - the pattern is a little tricky. But, a break above 112 - or, below ...

skinowski — 5/16/2026 8:27:00 AM

He’s right - the pattern is a little tricky. But, a break above 112 - or, below 88 - should show the direction.

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$USOIL - It's hard to say what pattern this is, maybe a converging pattern since the April high. If the war in Iran resumes in the near future it will obviously spike again, but if the war doesn't resume, price will stay in a range and won't make much progress. pic.twitter.com/cLZq2VIlgg
— CyclesFan (@CyclesFan) May 16, 2026

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Silver

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$Silver - Wednesday's top ended an ABC rally. The big 2 day decline that followed was similar to the 2 day decline on March 2 and 3. Since it's still above the monthly pivot(75.45) there may be a bounce similar to the one on March 4-10 before we see a retest of the March low. pic.twitter.com/5dpcW5bze6
— CyclesFan (@CyclesFan) May 16, 2026

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Gold

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$Gold - Last week's forecast failed because gold was much weaker than silver this week and wasn't even able to surpass its April high(4891). Given Friday's bearish action, breaking the April low(4500) will lead to a retest of the March low at 4100.https://t.co/damUQGRSZk pic.twitter.com/G2egZJOiCQ
— CyclesFan (@CyclesFan) May 16, 2026

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[skinowski] What matters most is peace, good health, civilized society - and, of course, pr...

skinowski — 5/15/2026 1:32:52 PM

What matters most is peace, good health, civilized society - and, of course, prosperity and economic opportunity. Most countries on this planet aren’t the largest or the most powerful - but in many, people live well - and very happily.

[J.B.C.] Yesterday I sold my SLV and bought CPER based on P&F Relative strength. This is...

J.B.C. — 5/15/2026 12:23:30 PM

Yesterday I sold my SLV and bought CPER based on P&F Relative strength.

This is SLV vs. CPER RS comparison on a 3.25% scale (white paper studies of using these scales), a column of X’s favors SLV. It broke down:

[IC720] Idk, was just thinking about that... what is next, if ... we feel we're being re...

IC720 — 5/15/2026 11:47:13 AM

Idk, was just thinking about that... what is next, if ... we feel we're being replaced.. in 2nd place..?
Could we learn just how powerful consciousness/the mind is? Has been lot of talk what Ancients were capable of. Frequency's, Time, Space..
Little uneducated there but doesn't that get into Quantum...Physics?
Free Energy, which many agree we've always had?
We move into Space, learn new ways of travel, harness what we have, the Oceans, Water, the Sun...

[skinowski] Yep… that’s the biggest question of them all - what if people keep learning new ...

skinowski — 5/15/2026 11:08:24 AM

Yep… that’s the biggest question of them all - what if people keep learning new skills - only to find out that the jobs they are training for are already taken my machines?

This will probably not happen - but, at this point we can’t be certain. Adjustments will not be easy.

Kevin O’Leary is also right - getting left behind could be a greater problem.

The only thing “forcing” us into AI is life itself - we can outlaw it in our state - or country - or village — but the rest of the world will move forward.

The alternative is to become the 3rd world. Pretty idiotic, I’d say.

[robert b furman] Hi Cheif, I'm lurking a bit and very busy with this years remodel chores. Over ...

robert b furman — 5/15/2026 9:10:20 AM

Hi Cheif,

I'm lurking a bit and very busy with this years remodel chores. Over the last 18 monts I've gutted all plumbing and electrical in my Wisconsin home. Installed a 45 and 20 foot beam and opened up the entire lower floor. Three new bathrooms and a huge kitchen with new applianced and a 12 foot island. All new doors and windows, plastering and 2 coats of paint.

This sprig we're adding stone to 2 sides of th house, a metal standing seam roof and new Haedy board siding.

This last week I planted 30 trees on the 40 acres: 10 shagbark hickory, 10 swamp white oak, and 10 highbush cranberry. All for feeding the local deer and Wild Turkeys. Many weekends in the ER, while driving him around to see Doctors. Now as his family goes thru his belongings, I'm mowing his beautiful 7.5 acres along the MEME River in Manitowoc County just North of my place.

Our high School 50 yera Anniversary Banquet is next week and I'm the guy who collects local door prizes for the evening. We have had a wonderful turn out to the event, and it is a very fun thing to attend.

All that adds up to me trying to fill a 5 pound bag with 10 pounds of things to do.

I do my CLX early before the market opens and have really not done much other than sell some puts on Energy stocks which have been very volatile as the Iran war goes no where and the stocks bounce with huge volatility.

I sold out of my Energy positions that I added last year in Apriland had some nice short term gains and am trying foe a nice rentry - but they remain elevated due to the war and its fog.

I liquidated half of my IRA selling all CVX and half of my XOM. An opportinistic event that put my IRA over 50% cash. I put that into Scwab's SNAXX which is yielding higher than the dividend yield on CVX and XOM did. So that cash will cover my next decade's RMD while still getting dividends on the remainf XOM and a large position in KMI.

That's the biggest news. I'm set up to transfer cash from my IRA (while satisfying RMD's, and then send it to the IRS and help cover the dividend revenue stream on my taxable account.

Hoping to get all the house remodal by fall and get to Texas and enjoy a warm winter vs the 3 last winters of construction which were pretty brutal. We've endured the worst and the place is looking better with each day.

Thanks for asking.

You are posting more, I assume your recovery is continuing.

I think of you often and do miss the comradery of the many great folks here at SI.

Things are good, and I'm excited about getting my place in order and more than likely sell the Houston home in a year or two.

Best of trades Cheif!

Breeze is doing a wonderful job of helping me make some right moves without being totally involved. Bless him and his brilliance.

Bob

[IC720] Tucker giving few thoughts on AI, Robotics, US/China competing.. [X] Tucker Ca...

IC720 — 5/15/2026 8:41:39 AM

Tucker giving few thoughts on AI, Robotics, US/China competing..

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Tucker Carlson asks Kevin O’Leary the one question AI enthusiasts can’t answer: What happens to people when machines can do everything better than humans?

Kevin O’Leary responds: We can’t let China win the AI race.

Tucker points out that taxpayers are being “forced” into the AI… pic.twitter.com/3ZCZDJx5KX
— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) May 14, 2026

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[da_cheif™] i was wundering were you were

da_cheif™ — 5/14/2026 8:57:11 PM

[J.B.C.] 100 recommendations for that. I agree wholeheartedly.

J.B.C. — 5/14/2026 9:50:37 AM