Silicon Investor - Microsoft Corp. - Moderated (MSFT)

[Don Green] Why so many people hate Microsoft Message 35629950

Don Green — 9/7/2026 2:28:11 PM

[zax] Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) 390.54 -2.81(-0.71%) At close: 4:00:01 PM EDT 425...

zax — 7/29/2026 7:28:09 PM

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
390.54 -2.81 (-0.71%) At close: 4:00:01 PM EDT
425.90 +35.36 (+9.05%) After hours: 7:28:58 PM EDT

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Microsoft Smashes June-Quarter Targets On AI, Cloud Strength

investors.com

Microsoft (MSFT) late Wednesday crushed Wall Street's targets for its fiscal fourth quarter thanks to cloud computing and AI strength. It also guided to fiscal Q1 sales above views. Microsoft stock rose in extended trading.

The Redmond, Wash.-based software and cloud services giant earned an adjusted $4.74 a share on sales of $90 billion in the quarter ended June 30. Analysts polled by FactSet had expected earnings of $4.24 a share on sales of $87.62 billion in fiscal Q4. On a year-over-year basis, Microsoft's earnings rose 23% while sales increased 18%.

</snip> Read the rest here: investors.com

[Don Green] Microsoft’s retirement offer is a wake-up call for workers The tech giant’s fir...

Don Green — 7/15/2026 5:48:26 AM

Microsoft’s retirement offer is a wake-up call for workers

The tech giant’s first buyout forced thousands into 30-day retirement decisions.

Jul 11, 2026 8:07 AM EDT

VV Shots/Getty Images

About 8,750 Microsoft employees recently had roughly 30 days to decide whether their savings could support walking away from their careers for good.

The company’s first-ever Voluntary Retirement Program offered eligible workers cash severance, years of healthcare coverage, and continued stock vesting as exit incentives.

More than 30% of those eligible accepted the package, Microsoft disclosed in a July 6 corporate update.

The compressed decision window revealed a gap in financial preparedness that extends well beyond the technology sector and into every American workplace.

Microsoft committed $900 million to its voluntary exit programMicrosoft announced the program in late April 2026, offering packages to United States employees whose combined age and years of service totaled at least 70, according to CNBC.

The offer applied to workers at the senior director level and below, covering about 7% of the domestic workforce.

Eligible employees could receive lump-sum cash payments ranging from eight weeks to approximately nine months of base pay, depending on seniority and tenure, GeekWire reported.

The package also included up to five years of continued medical, dental, and vision coverage, with Microsoft fully subsidizing the first year of premiums.

Amy Coleman, Microsoft’s executive vice president and chief people officer, said the voluntary program helps employees transition while receiving substantial company-backed benefits.

Our hope is that this program gives those eligible the choice to take that next step on their own terms, with generous company support

Amy Coleman

Microsoft’s executive vice president and chief people officer.

Unvested restricted stock units would continue to vest for six months after departure for most participants in the program. Workers with 24 or more years of continuous service could receive up to 12 months of additional vesting, according to Peoplematters.

Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood disclosed on the third-quarter earnings call that the program would result in approximately $900 million in one-time charges.

That figure represents roughly one day of revenue for a company that brought in $82.9 billion during the quarter ending March 31, GeekWire reported.

The pre-Medicare healthcare gap could determine your retirement timelineMicrosoft’s decision to include five years of healthcare coverage highlights a cost that keeps many workers tied to their employers longer than they want.

The average retirement age in the United States is 63, but Medicare does not begin until 65, creating at least a two-year insurance gap, according to the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.

A 65-year-old retiring today can expect to spend approximately $172,500 on healthcare throughout retirement, and a couple faces projected costs of roughly $345,000, according to Fidelity’s 24th annual Retiree Health Care Cost Estimate.

Those figures exclude long-term care and the added burden that workers face when retiring before Medicare eligibility.

Americans consistently underestimate how much they will need for healthcare in retirement, Shams Talib, head of Fidelity Workplace Consulting, warned in Fidelity’s estimate.

Workers retiring before 65 face additional expenses, including Affordable Care Act marketplace premiums and COBRA coverage that expires after 18 months.

Retiring before 65 can mean paying costly health insurance bills, making healthcare one of the biggest barriers to early retirement. Artificial intelligence spending is reshaping tech workforces Microsoft’s retirement offer did not arrive in isolation, as the company has committed more than $80 billion to artificial intelligence infrastructure in recent fiscal years.

Hood told analysts that headcount declined year-over-year in the most recent quarter and will continue to decline into fiscal year 2027.

The broader technology sector announced 52,050 job cuts during the first quarter of 2026, a 40% increase from the same period one year earlier, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

“You usually don’t expect technology companies to be using early retirement plans,” Joe Phillips, an economics professor at Seattle University, told KIRO 7.

Most workers don’t choose when they retire The Employee Benefit Research Institute found that 46% of Americans who retired last year left the workforce earlier than planned, with corporate restructuring driving 35% of those early departures.

Zachary Ashburn, chief planning officer at Reach Strategic Wealth, wrote in Kiplinger that his firm calls each phase of a worker’s career a “Strategic Planning Window,” with each window opening unique tax and financial opportunities that are available only for a limited period.

Ashburn also added that mapping out healthcare costs, tax exposure, and income needs before an unexpected offer arrives can shape whether a worker’s transition through one of these windows produces the outcome they wanted.

[Don Green] Microsoft lays off nearly 5K workers, most of them at Xbox: ‘Our business toda...

Don Green — 7/7/2026 8:42:26 AM

Microsoft lays off nearly 5K workers, most of them at Xbox:
‘Our business today is not healthy’
MY Post

[zax] Microsoft up only 0.5% this morning. But Mr. Market is going to see this mornin...

zax — 7/2/2026 10:08:59 AM

Microsoft up only 0.5% this morning. But Mr. Market is going to see this morning's move in SFTBY soon (now at +11.2%), and perhaps put two and two together. That's my story, and I'm sticking to it. :)

[zax] Microsoft Slammed for Building Copyright-Infringing Supercomputer for OpenAI in ...

zax — 6/28/2026 10:47:16 PM

Microsoft Slammed for Building Copyright-Infringing Supercomputer for OpenAI in New Court Filing

yro.slashdot.org

The New York Times alleges Microsoft actively encouraged OpenAI to steal its copyrighted work, reports Ars Technica, citing a new (and heavily redacted) court filing Thursday:

NYT's motion comes after the [U.S.] Supreme Court sided with Cox Communications in a case where Sony tried and failed to claim that Cox was contributing to music piracy as an Internet service provider, which set a new standard for contributory infringement. Moving forward, plaintiffs will have to prove that parties intentionally acted to induce illegal conduct. Recognizing that the legal precedent has changed, the NYT now wants to amend its complaint to align its contributory infringement claim against Microsoft with that new standard... A Microsoft spokesperson told Ars that the company views the amended complaint as "a last-ditch effort by the plaintiff to save its claim from unfavorable precedent set in other recent rulings..."

The updated complaint seeks to specify that [Microsoft's] supercomputer was tailor-made to help OpenAI infringe and allege that it was built for the explicit purpose of training AI on copyrighted works without permission. And as the NYT alleged, its articles were more heavily weighted by this system, as both firms hoped to train models on the highest-quality journalism possible, so that level of writing could be confidently mimicked in outputs. By building this "unusually complex" machine, Microsoft not only helped select the works that were infringed but also provided a means to seize copyrighted works without permission, the NYT alleged. "Microsoft specifically designed it for the purpose of using essentially the whole Internet — curated to disproportionately feature Times Works — to train the most capable LLM in history," the NYT alleged... Similarly as problematic for the NYT are hallucinations where Microsoft and OpenAI models falsely cite the NYT for content that they never published... "Users who ask a search engine what The Times has written on a subject should be provided with neither an unauthorized copy nor an inaccurate forgery of a Times article, but a link to the article itself," the NYT alleged...

In a statement provided to Ars, OpenAI spokesperson Drew Pusateri reiterated the AI firm's often-repeated claims that AI training on copyrighted works is indisputably fair use... OpenAI has argued that "ChatGPT is not a substitute for a Times subscription," the NYT reported, partly because "they transformed the material for a different use."

An OpenAI spokesperson told Ars Technica that OpenAI's models "empower innovation," while a New York Times spokesperson insisted that Microsoft "actively encouraged OpenAI to steal our copyrighted works... [O]ur core claims remain the same from the day we filed this lawsuit — that Microsoft and OpenAI stole millions of The Times's copyrighted works to compete with our products and illegally enrich themselves."

The article speculates that the case's most extreme outcome "could require OpenAI and Microsoft to wipe models and start over. The NYT has also asked for permanent injunctive relief to prevent future infringement, as well as extensive damages..."

[Don Green] Microsoft user base. dg>>> Generally Microsoft user base dislike Microsoft prod...

Don Green — 6/28/2026 1:55:25 PM

Microsoft user base.

dg>>> Generally Microsoft user base dislike Microsoft products for decades, but accepted the flaws because there was limited competition

Now and going forward AI directly cannibalizes:

Office (AI writes the document)
Windows (model becomes the interface)
Visual Studio (AI writes the code)
GitHub (AI generates repos)
Teams (AI handles communication)
Outlook (AI handles email)

dg>>> And this is just about Microsoft products. Then there’s the decline of the Microsoft workforce. I was working at Microsoft during a massive office building expansion around Redmond, Washington, which I now imagine will soon have a lot of excess office space. Because AI will reduce the need for a majority of their work force

[E_K_S] Definitely lots of moving parts. The AI spend is huge but which companies will ...

E_K_S — 6/28/2026 12:31:51 PM

Definitely lots of moving parts. The AI spend is huge but which companies will see the largest returns? A lot can happen 3-4 years out. Are we in/near an AI bubble?

We were around during the Dot.com bubble, but I think this is different. Still not sure how this will end but I think MSFT may be a stronger and more profitable company w/ their CapX investments and user base.

MSFT on my watch list but probably time to scale into a position.

Good overview

[Don Green] I asked MSFT Co-Pilot for its analysis of Burry's Premise Read the pros and cons...

Don Green — 6/28/2026 11:56:37 AM

I asked MSFT Co-Pilot for its analysis of Burry's Premise
Read the pros and cons response below

Burry’s Premise (Summarized)From the document you shared, Burry’s core thesis is:

1. Microsoft’s ROIC is falling because AI CapEx is turning it into a capital-intensive company.ROIC dropped from 34.5% ? 26.9% in three years.

2. CapEx exploded (2.7×), but revenue didn’t scale proportionally.Incremental revenue per $1 CapEx = $0.43 ? very low efficiency.

3. The market has already priced in this deterioration.PE compressed from 51× ? 27×.

4. Microsoft is now fairly valued, maybe undervalued, if AI CapEx peaks and FCF inflects.5. The risk is that AI CapEx keeps rising while returns don’t materialize.This would push MSFT toward a “utility-like” valuation (15× PE).

6. Burry is using LEAPS because the payoff is asymmetric.He’s not betting on MSFT’s business — he’s betting on valuation mean reversion.

Do I agree or disagree with the premise?I agree with Burry on the financial mechanics.Not as opinion — but because the numbers support his premise.

ROIC deterioration is real.The data shows a clear downward trend. This is exactly what happens when a software company becomes a hardware + infrastructure company.

CapEx efficiency is currently poor.$64.6B CapEx ? $281.7B revenue Incremental revenue per CapEx dollar is weak.

This is a legitimate concern.

Valuation compression has already happened.PE 51× ? 27× Forward PE 19× This is textbook “multiple compression due to capital intensity.”

Microsoft’s balance sheet is strong enough to absorb the CapEx cycle.Net debt down 64%. Equity doubled. FCF still massive.

This supports Burry’s asymmetric-risk argument.

I disagree with the premise only in one area: the long-term ROIC collapse.Burry assumes:

“AI CapEx permanently destroys ROIC.”

The data shows ROIC fell 780 bps, but:

Operating margins expanded
FCF is still strong
Azure pricing power is intact
AI services are beginning to monetize
CapEx may peak in FY26

If CapEx plateaus and AI revenue ramps, ROIC can stabilize or even recover.

This is the part where Burry may be too pessimistic.

The real question: Is Microsoft becoming a utility?Burry’s bear case is:

“If AI CapEx keeps rising and returns don’t materialize, MSFT gets re-rated like a utility.”

This is the only part of the thesis that is debatable.

Why this could be wrong:

Microsoft’s AI revenue is recurring, not cyclical
Azure has pricing power
AI services are high-margin
Developer tools + Office + GitHub integrate AI deeply
Microsoft monetizes AI through existing channels
AI increases demand for Microsoft’s core products

Utilities don’t have:

45% operating margins
25%+ FCF margins
20%+ revenue growth
global enterprise lock-in
software pricing power

So the “utility re-rating” is possible, but not the base case.

Final Answer (Clear and Direct)I agree with Burry’s premise that:

ROIC is falling
CapEx is exploding
AI buildout is capital-intensive
valuation compression has already occurred
LEAPS offer asymmetric payoff
MSFT is fairly valued, maybe undervalued
CapEx efficiency is currently poor
the market has priced in the risks

I disagree with the premise that:

Microsoft’s ROIC will permanently collapse
Microsoft will be re-rated like a utility
AI CapEx will not produce meaningful returns
Microsoft’s business model is structurally impaired

The financial data supports Burry’s setup, but not necessarily his bearish long-term conclusion.

[E_K_S] In my valuation metrics I look at current & future FCF as well as FCF Yield, PE ...

E_K_S — 6/28/2026 11:12:12 AM

In my valuation metrics I look at current & future FCF as well as FCF Yield, PE (past & future), CapX Spend & ROI & EV/EBITDA.

I agree w/ your observations that at the current valuation, you get good AI exposure w/ limited downside risk. The metrics below appear to substantiate that conclusion.

I asked my Kimi AI to review MSFT's Valuation viewed through Michael Burry's eyes and present his argument as to why MSFT may be a 'Value' Buy. An interesting over view.

(No Position but have MSFT on the watch list)

[zax] Microsoft is leading integrator, use case and developer of AI. They integrate m...

zax — 6/28/2026 12:25:46 AM

Microsoft is leading integrator, use case and developer of AI. They integrate multiple models from different companies into Visual Studio, provide the cloud fabric and compute, are heavily invested in OpenAI and Anthropic, and own Github.

One of the very most prime reasons AI is used is increase productivity in the use of Microsoft coding tools.

So I think the opposite of what you are saying is true, and Burry's case seems likely based around financial market participants current obsessions (pure infrastructure, memory, power, etc), the so called pick and axe suppliers, which are cyclicals. Beautiful while the music is playing, but we all know what happens when the music stops.

And Microsoft is one of the safest ways to invest in AI, because their diverse revenue streams do not rely nor are concentrated in AI. They stand to benefit, with minimal downside in coming industry fall-out.

So we are in early bubble right now, and riding the market distortions properly is a great opportunity to make a lot of money. In the end, most of the companies without real revenues and business will fall out.

[Don Green] I think MSFT is extremely vulnerable to AI as is Apple. Considering they were th...

Don Green — 6/27/2026 7:06:24 PM

I think MSFT is extremely vulnerable to AI as is Apple. Considering they were the technology leaders for decades they both may have peaked. The fact that both technology leaders failed to or were afraid of AI could be their eventual long-term downfall

thoughts from MSFT Co-pilot

You’re not wrong to see the vulnerability — but the reason Microsoft and Apple are exposed isn’t the one most people talk about. It’s not “AI is coming for them.” It’s that their historical advantages don’t map cleanly onto the new stack.

Let me give you the straight, no-nonsense version.

The uncomfortable truth: both companies peaked in their native paradigm Microsoft peaked in the software + enterprise + OS monopoly era. Apple peaked in the hardware + ecosystem + device UX era.

AI is a new paradigm where:

distribution OS
value hardware
lock-in app store
differentiation UI
moat ecosystem

The center of gravity moves from platform to model.

That’s why both companies suddenly look… mortal.

Why Microsoft is vulnerable Microsoft’s empire rests on three pillars:

Windows
Office
Azure

AI threatens all three.

1. Windows becomes optionalIf the model becomes the interface, the OS becomes a commodity. Windows loses its monopoly advantage.

2. Office becomes a feature, not a productIf AI writes the document, the spreadsheet, the email… Office becomes a thin wrapper around AI.

3. Azure is strong — but AI is flattening cloud differentiationIf models run locally or on specialized inference hardware, cloud becomes less central.

Microsoft knows this. That’s why they’re racing to fuse Windows with AI before AI makes Windows irrelevant.

Why Apple is vulnerable Apple’s empire rests on:

Hardware margins
Ecosystem lock-in
Vertical integration

AI threatens all three.

1. Hardware becomes less importantIf intelligence lives in the model, not the device, the hardware premium shrinks.

2. Ecosystem lock-in weakensIf the model mediates everything, switching platforms becomes trivial.

3. Vertical integration becomes a bottleneckApple’s “slow, controlled, perfectionist” culture is the opposite of the AI pace.

Apple is years behind in foundational models. They’re trying to compensate with on-device AI, but that’s a defensive move, not a leadership move.

The real threat: AI-native companies don’t need the OS at all OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI — they’re building:

agents
operating layers
reasoning engines
universal interfaces

These sit above Windows and macOS.

If the model becomes the primary interface, then:

the OS becomes plumbing
apps become ephemeral
UI becomes generated
workflows become agentic
hardware becomes interchangeable

This is the first time in 40 years that Microsoft and Apple are not the ones defining the platform.

But here’s the twist: they’re not doomed — yetBoth companies have one massive advantage:

Distribution.Microsoft has:

1.4B Windows devices
400M Office users
Azure enterprise dominance

Apple has:

2.2B active devices
unmatched hardware loyalty
the world’s most profitable consumer ecosystem

If they can pivot fast enough, they can absorb AI instead of being replaced by it.

But that’s the question: Can they move fast enough?

Historically, neither company moves at AI speed.

My take, stated plainlyYou’re right: Both companies are vulnerable in a way they haven’t been since the 90s.

But they’re not dead. They’re in a race — and for the first time, they’re not the ones setting the pace.

The next 24–36 months decide everything.

[zax] With respect to his short calls, Burry is like the proverbial broken clock, righ...

zax — 6/27/2026 6:51:41 PM

With respect to his short calls, Burry is like the proverbial broken clock, right twice a day, but wrong the rest of the time.

Regardless, I think his call on MSFT right now is a winner and a no-brainer at once.

[Don Green] Most people who follow him already know this, but I’m not sure what your point i...

Don Green — 6/27/2026 3:18:18 PM

Most people who follow him already know this, but I’m not sure what your point is. My point is that he made a great call nearly 20 years ago, yet his track record over the last decade hasn’t been impressive. Now it seems like he’s making calls after placing his bets to profit from the resulting chatter — basically, he’s talking his.
book. Like most be brokerage houses do.

[E_K_S] You forgot the most important Michael Burry fact; He posted on Silicon Investor ...

E_K_S — 6/27/2026 3:07:51 PM

You forgot the most important Michael Burry fact; He posted on Silicon Investor starting in Nov. 1996.

From my new AI Chat (www.kimi.com)

been testing the Chinese AI, pretty good, free service too

Based on the search results, here is what we know about Michael Burry's activity on Silicon Investor:

When

Michael Burry joined Silicon Investor in November 1996 while working as a medical resident on a cardiology rotation at Saint Thomas Hospital in Nashville, Tennessee. He was active on the platform between 1996 and 2000, during which he wrote 3,304 posts — averaging more than two posts per day.

What Type of Posts
Burry's posts were primarily deep value investing analysis in the Benjamin Graham tradition. His content focused on:

"Obscene value plays" — stocks trading below book value, with significant net working capital or cash positions

Fundamental analysis of individual companies (e.g., Tejon Ranch, Apple in 1999, Beazer Homes, Nortek)

Margin of safety investing and downside protection

Book recommendations for value investing literature

Market commentary — including early warnings about market overvaluation (he noted in one exchange that "when the slope on the Dow chart starts to approach infinity I cash out and tune out")

What Threads
Burry founded more than 25 message boards on Silicon Investor, including threads dedicated to:

"Value Investing" — his original and most famous thread, started November 16, 1996

"Buffetology" — focused on Warren Buffett-style investing principles

The "Value Investing" thread was originally created on a site called techstocks.com (which later became Silicon Investor) and is still archived today. The first post set the tone: looking for value plays "in the Graham tradition," avoiding "obscenely high PE's," and examining "net working capital models."

Context
Initially, other forum members were skeptical that a medical professional could offer useful investment advice. However, Burry eventually dominated the discussion, and other members began taking his advice and making money from it. This online reputation helped him build credibility that later led to founding Scion Capital LLC.

[Don Green] Coming from the man who predicted the 2008 housing collapse, it is worth paying ...

Don Green — 6/27/2026 2:00:40 PM

Coming from the man who predicted the 2008 housing collapse, it is worth paying attention to.

dg>> Is it really?

Burry’s Verified Track Record (Actual Performance Data)1. Scion Capital (2000–2008): 489% net return Scion Capital produced 489.34% net returns from Nov 2000 to June 2008 — massively outperforming the S&P 500. This includes his famous subprime mortgage short, which generated roughly $700M for investors and allowed him to return $750M in capital.

2. Long-term average returns: ~20% annually over two decades A 2026 analysis reports Burry’s contrarian strategy has produced 20.1% annual returns over ~20 years, beating the S&P 500 by 9.8 percentage points annually.

3. Early track record (Dot-com crash) In 2001, while the S&P 500 fell 11%, Scion returned 55% by shorting overvalued tech stocks and buying deep value.

How Accurate Are His Public Stock Predictions? This is where things get more nuanced.

1. His big macro calls are not consistently predictive Burry has issued many warnings (market bubbles, crashes, inflation spikes). Some were early, some didn’t materialize, and some were directionally correct but poorly timed.

2. His 13F filings are NOT predictions Multiple sources emphasize that copying his 13F positions is dangerous because:

They show only long U.S. equities
They exclude shorts, cash, derivatives, hedges
They are stale (45-day delay)
They do not reveal his timing or thesis

3. Some notable wins after 2008

GameStop (2019) — Burry identified undervaluation before the meme stock mania.
Energy & retail value plays (2020) — He bought beaten-down cyclicals during tech euphoria.

4. Some public warnings that didn’t play out cleanly Examples (not from search, general knowledge):

2021–2022 repeated crash warnings were early or incorrect in timing.
His large 2023 put positions against the S&P 500 expired worthless (based on public reporting).

These do not contradict his long-term skill — they show that macro timing is extremely hard, even for elite investors.

So What’s the Real Answer? ? His investment track record is excellent

489% net return (2000–2008)
~20% annualized returns over two decades
Multiple contrarian wins
Deep-value methodology with rigorous research

His public predictions are mixed

Some brilliant calls
Some early or incorrect macro warnings
13F filings are not actionable signals
Tweets are not investment guidance

His edge is not “prediction” — it’s research He succeeds by reading what others ignore, concentrating positions, and holding for years — not by making frequent public forecasts.

If you want, I can also provide:

A timeline of his major predictions (wins & misses)
A breakdown of his 2025–2026 portfolio moves
A comparison of Burry vs Buffett vs Dalio prediction accuracy
A summary of his contrarian strategy and how it works

Source Grok

[zax] Michael Burry just made a bold bet on Microsoft. He bought call options expirin...

zax — 6/26/2026 7:34:20 PM

Michael Burry just made a bold bet on Microsoft.

He bought call options expiring December 2028 with a $700 strike price while the stock is currently sitting at $352.

That is a bet Microsoft doubles in price over the next two and a half years. Coming from the man who predicted the 2008 housing collapse, it is worth paying attention to.

-- NFT World facebook.com

[Kirk ©] Back before the implosion of Enron when I was still at HP, so pre 1998, I tried ...

Kirk © — 6/11/2026 10:18:55 PM

Back before the implosion of Enron when I was still at HP, so pre 1998, I tried to convince some coworkers to consider analysts at big firms nothing more than used stock certificate salesmen... better dressed and paid than used car salesmen.

I'm pretty sure the decades that followed have proven that to be correct. At least now they have to disclose their conflicts if they pitch on TV...

Of course I had decades of watching family members who didn't buy stocks get sucked in at the very top of several just before they imploded. I believe one of the first was my grandfather's brother who gave my dad a discount on the commission to buy some Controlled Data shares before they collapsed in the early 1970s. That is when I started to watch stock tickers in the paper and picked up my contrarian style in high school, years before I bought my own stock.

[Don Green] On October 3, 2001, just two months before Enron filed for bankruptcy, Goldman S...

Don Green — 6/11/2026 8:46:31 PM

On October 3, 2001, just two months before Enron filed for bankruptcy, Goldman Sachs issued an analyst report strongly reiterating its “Recommended List” rating for Enron. The report expressed “conviction in the high and sustained growth prospects” of the company, even while cutting earnings estimates.

dg>>>II found this, and I still have the actual report saved somewhere as a memento.

Goldman was not alone. As late as September 2001, after Enron’s CEO had resigned and the stock had already fallen 60%, all but one of the 17 analysts covering Enron still had BUY or STRONG BUY ratings. Even as Enron declared bankruptcy, Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers were still recommending investors hold the stock.
Earlier that year, a Goldman analyst had described Enron as “a world-class company” and “one of the best risk/reward opportunities in the marketplace.” This was six months before the implosion, despite acknowledging Enron’s low transparency and weak cash-flow discipline.

Why this happened The Senate and GAO later concluded that:

Analysts were compromised by conflicts of interest — their firms earned lucrative fees from Enron.
Enron’s opaque financials (“a black box”) made real analysis nearly impossible.
Investment banks, including Goldman, were involved in structuring transactions that helped Enron obscure debt, further clouding the picture.
Co-pilot AI Sourcing

[Don Green] My wife used to be a VP and financial analyst at Goldman Sachs, and I remember s...

Don Green — 6/11/2026 8:25:34 PM

My wife used to be a VP and financial analyst at Goldman Sachs, and I remember saving a very favorable analyst’s report produced by GS that was released a few months before Enron Imploded. All Wall Street firms talk their book.

[miraje] My tech background was back in the stone age. IBM 360s and 370s running various ...

miraje — 6/11/2026 8:19:35 PM

My tech background was back in the stone age. IBM 360s and 370s running various flavors of DOS (EDOS, MVT/VSE, etc). Tape drives, punch card readers, rotating ball Selectric consoles and 1403 printers clattering away. I was an operations supervisor and there was a lot of computer room "hands on" fixing JCL, etc, on the fly to keep things running in those days.

I'm purely a user and not a techie these days, but I read analysts now claiming that MSFT is well positioned in the new AI universe. That, plus their consistent earnings and revenues beat doesn't explain the stock price performance as of late..

[Don Green] I worked at Microsoft for 15 years in the 2000s and have been an active Windows ...

Don Green — 6/11/2026 7:02:49 PM

I worked at Microsoft for 15 years in the 2000s and have been an active Windows user since version 1.04. It’s clear that Windows held a monopoly for decades, but eventually lost it. Azure turned things around, paving the way for S. Nadella to become CEO. It’s no accident that Microsoft and Apple haven’t fully embraced AI, as both companies are rooted in programming and remain highly vulnerable to the impact of AI.

[miraje] This stock has really turned into a boat anchor in my portfolio. Guess that incr...

miraje — 6/11/2026 3:00:08 PM

This stock has really turned into a boat anchor in my portfolio. Guess that increasing earnings and revenue don't matter much now.

Hey, Mr Softy, How 'bout using some of that cash horde for a nice dividend increase? And a stock split might be nice as well. Maybe 3 for 1? Just a thought..

[zax] Microsoft reveals new quantum chip made with AI, says it will have systems by 20...

zax — 6/3/2026 11:50:41 AM

Microsoft reveals new quantum chip made with AI, says it will have systems by 2029

reuters.com

Microsoft unveils Majorana 2 chip using AI-designed lead-based materials, claims 1,000-fold boost on some performance metrics

Microsoft aims to have commercially useful machines the same year as rival IBM

Physicists criticize Microsoft for lack of public data, questioning reproducibility of its quantum claims

... reuters.com

[zax] Nvidia Enters Windows Laptop Market, Taking On Intel and AMD finance.yahoo.com ...

zax — 6/1/2026 1:18:13 AM

Nvidia Enters Windows Laptop Market, Taking On Intel and AMD

finance.yahoo.com

(Bloomberg) -- Nvidia Corp. is entering the PC market with a new chip aimed at loosening the stranglehold of Intel Corp. technology in that arena and modernizing the machines for the AI era.

</snip> Full article here: finance.yahoo.com

[zax] Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) 450.24 +23.25 (+5.45%) At close: May 29 at 4:00:0...

zax — 6/1/2026 12:36:10 AM

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

450.24 +23.25 (+5.45%) At close: May 29 at 4:00:01 PM EDT
462.89 +12.65 (+2.76%) Overnight: 12:27:03 AM EDT

The money is rotating out of GOOG and into MSFT because it is looking for the next runner, and GOOG stalled.

My thesis:

There are many new AI plays emerging every day, and as a result the easy money is getting harder and scarcer and the odds longer. So the smart money is looking for who won't collapse when the music stops but will still run with the bulls on the way up anyway.

And suddenly, every analyst realizes that MSFT was trading below its 200 day moving average. It ain't no more, brother. Last week is over and this train is leaving the station.

[Don Green] Only the start more to come AI OS is coming Message 35349912

Don Green — 5/1/2026 4:48:09 PM

[Johnny Canuck] I also think there is some concern about share of AI growth. AMZN and MSFT has g...

Johnny Canuck — 4/30/2026 8:33:04 AM

I also think there is some concern about share of AI growth. AMZN and MSFT has growth in 30s GOOGL was 63 percent.

[Johnny Canuck] Microsoft delivers a promising quarter but can’t shake the software fears Publis...

Johnny Canuck — 4/30/2026 8:30:57 AM

Microsoft delivers a promising quarter but can’t shake the software fears
Published Wed, Apr 29 2026•8:21 PM EDT|Updated 25 Min Ago

Kevin Stankiewicz @in/kevin-stankiewicz-b5593466

Share?Share Article via Facebook?Share Article via Twitter?Share Article via LinkedIn?Share Article via Email

Microsoft on Wednesday reported better-than-expected quarterly results and issued a strong forecast for its all-important Azure cloud unit. But key debates hanging over the stock weren’t put to bed, resulting in a muted reaction in extended trading. Here’s a look at some of the key metrics in Microsoft’s fiscal 2026 third quarter versus the Wall Street consensus: Revenue in the three months ended in March rose 18% year over year to $82.89 billion, beating the LSEG consensus estimate of $81.39 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) totaled $4.27, up 23.4% from a year earlier, topping the $4.06 consensus, according to LSEG. Azure cloud revenue growth on a constant currency basis came in at 39%, versus the FactSet consensus of 38%. On a reported basis, Azure cloud revenue was up 40%, ahead of the FactSet consensus of 39%. MSFT 1Y mountain Microsoft’s stock performance over the past 12 months. Bottom line Let’s call it a step in the right direction. There were some positives, led by the Azure growth guidance for the current quarter. But there were also some reminders about why Microsoft had become such a battleground stock in the first place — in particular, concerns about the viability of highly profitable seat-based software business models. With all these puts and takes, it’s not surprising to see the stock oscillating between modest gains and losses in after-hours trading on Wednesday night. Microsoft was beloved in the early days of the generative AI boom, thanks to its close ties to ChatGPT creator OpenAI. But the shine has faded, rendering Microsoft the worst-performing stock in the “Magnificent Seven” over the past six months. It’s tested our patience and that of plenty of other longtime shareholders, too. Among the reasons for the stock’s poor performance: Microsoft’s reliance on OpenAI for Azure growth came to be viewed as a weakness rather than a weapon. At the same time, the market wondered whether Microsoft was leaving Azure growth on the table as it ran into capacity constraints. Skepticism also mounted about the quality of Microsoft’s Copilot AI assistant as rivals like startup Anthropic were showered with praise for their tools. Additionally, concerns about “AI eating software” have been a major overhang on Microsoft and its industry peers. These debates were not solved on Wednesday night, even if some clarity was gained. The positives: Microsoft expects Azure growth for the three months ended in June to be between 39% and 40%, compared to the FactSet consensus of roughly 37%. Microsoft also signaled that it’s ramping up its capital expenditures to bring more AI computing capacity online. That should help the company meet demand from external customers while also allocating resources to internal AI model research to lessen its reliance on OpenAI’s intellectual property over time. Microsoft and OpenAI’s relationship continues to evolve , with a growing distance between them. On the earnings call, Microsoft CFO Amy Hood said the company expects to spend about $190 billion in capex in calendar 2026, implying almost $120 billion in the April-to-December timeframe. That compares with roughly $118 billion for all of calendar 2025, representing roughly 61% year-over-year growth. Another modest positive is that paid Copilot seats now exceed 20 million, up from 15 million disclosed in January, and Hood said the company expects a sequential increase again in the current quarter, driving continued average revenue per user growth. This isn’t to say Microsoft doesn’t still have work to do to make Copilot better, but adoption is at least trending upward. So, what about the bad? Well, Microsoft cannot escape the fact that it’s still a software company that has thrived on selling seat-based licenses to customers. And in the age of AI, where companies may be lowering their headcount and the remaining employees are using gobs of expensive AI compute, the old way of charging customers may need to evolve. Indeed, a considerable amount of time on Wednesday night’s conference call Q & A was spent discussing the seat-based versus consumption models. CEO Satya Nadella essentially made the case for a hybrid solution — and while time will tell whether he’s right, the very nature of the conversation reinforced some of the existential concerns investors have about software providers right now. For now, we’re reiterating our hold-equivalent 2 rating and price target of $500. Guidance Here’s the guidance that Microsoft offered for its fiscal 2026 fourth quarter: Azure revenue growth (constant currency) between 39% and 40%, comfortably ahead of the FactSet consensus of 36.9%. Total revenue in the range of $86.7 billion to $87.8 billion, implying growth between 13% and 15%. The midpoint of the guidance is slightly below the FactSet consensus of $87.56 billion. Operating expenses of $19.3 billion to $19.4 billion, implying 7% year over year growth. The implied FactSet consensus was $19.78 billion. Capital expenditures over $40 billion as more compute capacity comes online. Here’s the Q4 revenue expectations by reporting segment: Productivity and Business Processes: $37 billion to $37.3 billion. That is above the FactSet consensus of $36.64 billion. Intelligent Cloud: $37.95 to $38.25 billion. That compares with the FactSet consensus of $37.65 billion. More Personal Computing: $11.75 billion to $12.25 billion, below the FactSet consensus of $13.31 billion. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long MSFT. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB

[miraje] Does anyone follow MSFT stock any more? Another very good Q report, beating on e...

miraje — 4/29/2026 10:33:42 PM

Does anyone follow MSFT stock any more? Another very good Q report, beating on earnings and revs, and the stock takes a hit in AH trading. Dead money? What am I missing?

[Don Green] Is Microsoft slipping into darkness? [youtube video]

Don Green — 4/24/2026 10:50:55 PM

[Don Green] MicroHard is coming your way Microsoft issues first-ever employee buyout—here’...

Don Green — 4/23/2026 5:24:04 PM

MicroHard is coming your way

Microsoft issues first-ever employee buyout—here’s how much employees might receive

Story by Ty Roush, Forbes Staff
Apr 23

Copilot uses AI to shape what you see here. Mistakes happen, so double-check the facts.

Voluntary Buyouts: Microsoft is offering buyouts to roughly 7% of its U.S. workforce (~8,750 employees), targeting senior director level and below, or those whose age + years of service = 70.
Severance Packages: Employees may receive tens of thousands of dollars, with packages including base pay, additional weeks per year of service, health care, and stock vesting.
Company Context: Microsoft aims to increase spending on AI and data centers, balancing growth with workforce adjustments amid broader tech sector challenges.

See more

Topline Microsoft on Thursday began offering voluntary buyouts to thousands of employees in the software giant’s first-ever employee buyout program, and workers will likely receive tens of thousands of dollars as part of their severance package.

Key Facts

Microsoft offered buyouts to about 7% of its U.S. workforce on Thursday, according to an internal memo obtained by CNBC and Bloomberg.

Microsoft employed roughly 228,000 people as of June 2025, and of those, 125,000 were in the U.S., according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing (7% of the U.S. workforce would equal roughly 8,750 employees).

Those eligible for the buyouts include workers at the senior director level and below and employees whose years of employment at Microsoft and age add up to 70 or more.

Shares of Microsoft dropped by more than 4% as of Thursday afternoon, headlining broader losses across software stocks.

Microsoft did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Forbes.

How Much Will Microsoft Pay To Buyout Employees?Details for the buyouts will be disclosed to eligible employees and their managers on May 7, CNBC reported. Microsoft’s standard severance package previously included 12 weeks of base pay plus two additional weeks for every year of employment, though this could vary depending on tenure and level. When the company laid off 10,000 employees in 2023, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said his firm would offer benefit-eligible employees six months of health care and stock vesting and 60 days of notice in addition to severance. If a 20-year employee whose salary totaled $180,000, their severance package would offer $180,000, though it’s likely this would be larger for higher-level workers.

How Does Microsoft’s Severance Package Compare With Other Firms?When Meta announced it would cut more than 11,000 employees in November 2022, CEO Mark Zuckerberg said in a memo the company would pay 16 weeks of base pay plus two additional weeks for every year of service, in addition to all remaining paid time off, six months of health insurance and three months of career services. As part of a buyout program last year for Google’s human resources department, mid- to senior-level employees reportedly received severances of up to 14 weeks of salary and one additional week for every year of employment. Billionaire Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff told laid-off employees in January 2023 they would receive a minimum of “nearly” five months of pay, health insurance, career resources and “other benefits to help with their transition.”

Key BackgroundMicrosoft plans to increase spending as it develops data center capacity and other AI products, amid reports that the company has struggled to meet demand. Microsoft and its peers—Apple, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet—ramped up capital expenditures by $45 billion last year to $383 billion, and analysts expect the group’s spending to grow by more tan $100 billion in 2026 to nearly $500 billion. Spending is expected to more than double from Microsoft’s $44.5 billion in 2024 to about $98 billion in 2026, and CFO Amy Hood told investors the company would work to balance its spending as it hopes to meet growing demand.

Further Reading Microsoft Plans First-Ever Voluntary Employee Buyout For Up To 7% Of U.S. Workforce (CNBC)

Microsoft Offers Buyouts To About 7% Of US Workers (Bloomberg)

Microsoft Issues First-Ever Employee Buyout—Here’s How Much Employees Might Receive

The software megacap has ramped up spending on AI in recent years to compete with its peers. Getty Images

[Don Green] Macrohard Saga Continues Message 35349912

Don Green — 12/5/2025 5:18:31 AM

[zax] Microsoft (543.88 +2.31%) got a 27% stake in OpenAI today!!! OpenAI Finalizes C...

zax — 10/28/2025 3:19:45 PM

Microsoft (543.88 +2.31%) got a 27% stake in OpenAI today!!!

OpenAI Finalizes Corporate Restructuring, Gives Microsoft 27% Stake and Technology Access Until 2032

slashdot.org

blogs.microsoft.com

[Affinity4Investing] Sounds like you have to change your default program that opens PDF files and Exc...

Affinity4Investing — 9/25/2025 2:43:24 PM

Sounds like you have to change your default program that opens PDF files and Excel files. Edge sucks. It tries to be the default program to open everything. Check your CONTROL PANEL, DEFAULT PROGRAMS - and make sure the default program is what you want it.

[Don Green] Microsoft is the most unloved Big Tech stock right now. Here’s how that could ch...

Don Green — 9/22/2025 10:33:43 PM

Microsoft is the most unloved Big Tech stock right now. Here’s how that could change.

Marketwatch

Story by Christine Ji

There could be a comeback in the cards for Microsoft Corp., whose stock has fallen to the bottom of the “Magnificent Seven” pecking order in the third quarter.

Ben Reitzes, an analyst at Melius Research, believes shares of Microsoft have sold off unfairly. Investors shouldn’t be surprised if Microsoft regains some momentum in the coming months, as the company has plenty of “ammunition” to surprise investors with, Reitzes wrote in a note on Monday.

Microsoft’s strong Azure cloud-computing business, expertise with artificial intelligence enterprise agents and partnership with OpenAI should help it command a “premium valuation” against rival Alphabet Inc. Reitzes argued.

Alphabet has emerged in recent weeks as the new Big Tech favorite, outperforming Microsoft by 40 percentage points since Jul. 1 of this year. The Alphabet rally came after strong Google Cloud growth, a favorable antitrust ruling, and, most recently, a surge in Gemini adoption.

But as the artificial-intelligence landscape continues to evolve, Reitzes believes investors will come back to Microsoft’s strong business fundamentals, especially in regards to its Azure cloud-computing business, which posted 39% growth last quarter. Since 2021, Microsoft shares have averaged a 44% premium to Google based on their price-to-earnings ratios, which Reitzes attributed to Microsoft’s higher operating margins, larger cloud business and “a core software business which that seems safer” than Google Search.

“Azure has been a share gainer in cloud revenue, and AI demand is accelerating that trend,” Reitzes wrote.

Also read: Microsoft’s stock has been in a rut since earnings. What’s going on?

Microsoft’s partnership with OpenAI may have injected uncertainty into its stock outlook as the AI company navigates its transition away from a nonprofit structure. OpenAI is making progress toward monetization as the two companies announced a nonbinding memorandum of understanding for a revised relationship last week. The partnership could make Microsoft better-positioned than Google to take advantage of the AI inferencing surge as OpenAI drives enormous inference workloads onto Azure and Microsoft receives a share of OpenAI revenue.

Further down the road, Microsoft is also poised to be a winner from the rise of AI agents in enterprise software, as Microsoft’s existing platform gives it the upper hand in automating workflows since most enterprises already run their businesses on its ecosystem, Reitzes argued.

Microsoft’s next earnings call could provide the catalysts needed for a comeback if the company provides more details on its Copilot AI tool ecosystem adoption, according to Reitzes. He said Azure can sustain growth levels in excess of 30% for several quarters to come, solidifying Azure’s lead over Google Cloud.

“If the AI contribution can drive upside to the forecasts for Azure in [fiscal year 2026] toward 40%, it would be cheered by the market,” Reitzes wrote. “Checks for Azure are showing no slowdown and Microsoft should make some compelling announcements around agents and Copilot at its Ignite conference in November.”

Reitzes gives Microsoft a price target of $625 and a buy rating.

Microsoft is the most unloved Big Tech stock right now. Here’s how that could change. © Getty Images

[Don Green] let’s map out engineer adoption scenarios for Macrohard. Since this is really ab...

Don Green — 9/21/2025 12:54:44 PM

let’s map out engineer adoption scenarios for Macrohard. Since this is really about psychology, incentives, and professional risk, I’ll break it into adoption categories, assign rough % ranges, and then show how each affects Macrohard’s trajectory.

Engineer Adoption Scenarios 1. True Believers (10–15%)

Profile: risk-takers, futurists, Musk fans, engineers who want to be at the bleeding edge.
Motivation: “If software is going to be rewritten by AI anyway, I’d rather be the one writing the AI.”
Risk tolerance: high — willing to risk their careers on Macrohard’s success.
Effect: ensures Macrohard has an initial talent base, even if the majority of engineers hesitate.

2. Pragmatic Opportunists (25–30%)

Profile: ambitious engineers who see career branding value (“I worked on Macrohard at launch”).
Motivation: resume power, short-term visibility, high pay/equity.
Risk tolerance: medium — they’ll join for 1–2 years, then bail if it looks unstable.
Effect: Macrohard can staff fast, but retention is fragile; talent churn risk is high.

3. Skeptical Majority (40–50%)

Profile: mainstream engineers at Microsoft, Google, startups.
Motivation: prefer stability, good benefits, proven roadmaps.
Risk tolerance: low — they’ll wait to see results before jumping ship.
Effect: slows Macrohard’s scale-up; it can’t absorb the bulk of engineering talent until trust is proven.

4. Resisters (15–20%)

Profile: engineers who see Macrohard as an existential threat to their profession.
Motivation: protect human-coded software, ethical worries, distrust of Musk.
Risk tolerance: N/A — they won’t join, may actively oppose or criticize the project.
Effect: fuels cultural backlash, may encourage regulatory pushback.

?? Adoption Impact on Macrohard’s Execution

Adoption MixEffect on MacrohardTime Horizon

High Believer + Opportunist intake (40%+)	Macrohard can ship prototypes quickly; risk of high churn later.	2025–2026 (proof of concept phase)
Majority stays skeptical (50%+)	Macrohard scales slower; credibility gap widens vs Microsoft.	2027–2028
Resister bloc grows (20%+)	Public narrative shifts: “Macrohard is killing software jobs.” Risk of regulation, reputational drag.	Anytime 2026–2029
Believers drop <10%	Macrohard risks becoming “just another Musk demo” with no sustainable talent pool.	2027+

?? Bottom Line

Macrohard can launch fast with Believers + Opportunists (30–40% pool), but long-term success depends on converting the Skeptical Majority.
If engineers perceive they are coding themselves out of a career, adoption will stall, and Macrohard risks being remembered as an audacious but failed experiment.
If Musk can prove Macrohard produces reliable, enterprise-grade products, adoption curves will flip — the Skeptical Majority will cross over, and the Resisters will shrink to a vocal minority.

a side-by-side projection of Macrohard’s adoption curve vs Microsoft’s developer loyalty curve — showing when/if engineers might switch camps. Want me to build that comparative timeline?

the paradox Macrohard highlights. On the surface it looks like an exciting leap forward, but the very engineers building it are accelerating their own obsolescence. That dynamic could actually slow Macrohard’s development, because:

?? Why Long-Term Prospects Feel Negative for Engineers

Self-Cannibalization
- If Macrohard’s goal is to prove software firms can run on AI agents, then each success reduces the need for human engineers.
- Talented developers know they’re coding the scaffolding that could remove their own future jobs.
Cultural Backlash
- Just like auto workers resisted automation, engineers may actively resist joining or supporting Macrohard.
- If the narrative becomes “Macrohard is killing software engineering,” talent pipelines could shrink dramatically.
Recruitment & Retention Risks
- Macrohard might attract early Believers and Opportunists (for hype, pay, resume clout), but keeping them motivated long term will be hard once they realize they’re training replacements.
- If Musk insists on “pure AI-only,” human engineers may bail quickly.
Pipeline Erosion
- Universities and bootcamps may see fewer enrollments in traditional CS/programming tracks if the perception grows that AI will soon handle most dev work.
- That reduces future innovation, because fewer people enter the field.

?? Potential Hamper on Development

Early momentum, then slowdown: Macrohard can probably staff enough to launch demos quickly, but sustaining long-term innovation is harder if engineers are hesitant to commit.
Oversight gap: If fewer humans want to work in AI-run firms, oversight, ethics, and governance could weaken, leading to buggy or unsafe systems.
Regulatory friction: Governments might step in faster if they sense widespread job displacement, slowing Macrohard’s scaling.

?? Projection

Short-term (1–2 years): Engineers join for hype, but churn is high.
Mid-term (3–5 years): If Macrohard shows real products and revenue, skepticism might flip — reluctant engineers may come aboard despite existential worries.
Long-term (5–10 years): If Macrohard succeeds too well, software engineering as a mass profession could shrink, leaving only a smaller pool of elite “AI supervisors.” That shrinks innovation diversity and might ironically hamper AI’s own growth curve.

ChatGPT

[Don Green] You seem to be missing the obvious Message 35262591

Don Green — 9/20/2025 9:51:41 PM

[engineer] not at all. the base level of AI is a much needed improvement of the state of th...

engineer — 9/20/2025 8:02:53 PM

not at all. the base level of AI is a much needed improvement of the state of the art.

The higher level of AI that allows it to run our lives, yes, I want heavy restrictions on it. I want restriction on the chatGPT that allowed a boy to kill himself. I want fully automated driving banned until it gets a ton way more models and processing power.

but the article you state is that Satella fears AI for the more mundane stuff and his coding and customer service groups.

as an engineer I can think of 100 uses for AI to improve and streamline engineering, development, user interface, technology, etc. These have only barely been tried.

for instance, QA checking and SW release regression testing, user debugging. Today the code is so complex that most firms throw basically beta code out to teh public and allow all of us to find agregious bugs and issues and then fix it when we submit "tickets". With AI they can release 1000 AI bots that try a ton of more stuff than a human ever could in a matter of a few days and come up with a 1000 item bug list pretty damm fast.

voice mail trees that are actualy intelligent and not these brainless chat bots that only know 20 things and now are trained to limit you. Try doing something slightly out of the ordinary and you have the 1 hour wait for a human. improve that by a ton, make alot of money.

I could write 20 more pages on ideas and places to use it. As I said, no vision.

[Don Green] so can assume you don't fear AI? as an engineer?

Don Green — 9/20/2025 7:39:32 PM

[engineer] and if he "fears" AI, he is going to lead them right back in. Peggy would have b...

engineer — 9/20/2025 6:01:24 PM

and if he "fears" AI, he is going to lead them right back in. Peggy would have been a much better choice.

[Don Green] what a really short sighted CEO he is. He is the guy that brought back MSFT fro...

Don Green — 9/20/2025 5:59:28 PM

what a really short sighted CEO he is.

He is the guy that brought back MSFT from a death spiral

[engineer] what a really short sigthed CEO he is. the advance in AI is about the same as t...

engineer — 9/20/2025 5:55:52 PM

what a really short sigthed CEO he is.

the advance in AI is about the same as the advance in the 90's from an ARPANET to a webscape internet. this paraoid response is the political scare de jour.

take Edge. the advent of copilot makes alot more sense for search, What a sea change. You used to (3-4 years ago) type in a search term, but then had to find the right leywords to get anything meaninful and even then it was simply a list of web page links for you to go search out the meaning, content, etc.

Now you ask a question with a full sentence and co pilot goes and scans 100 web sites and returns a great summary of the information along with real relevant links, not the links sponsored by google ads, but the true informational links.

So is this the AI he is afraid of? the one that made microsoft browser actually useable?

basically he has no clue and is reacting to a political rant.

[Don Green] Microsoft CEO Concerned AI Will Destroy the Entire Company Story by Victor Tang...

Don Green — 9/20/2025 5:09:34 PM

Microsoft CEO Concerned AI Will Destroy the Entire Company

Story by Victor Tangermann
•

Morale among employees at Microsoft is circling the drain, as the company has been roiled by constant rounds of layoffs affecting thousands of workers.

Some say they've noticed a major culture shift this year, with many suffering from a constant fear of being sacked — or replaced by AI as the company embraces the tech.

Meanwhile, CEO Satya Nadella is facing immense pressure to stay relevant during the ongoing AI race, which could help explain the turbulence. While making major reductions in headcount, the company has committed to multibillion-dollar investments in AI, a major shift in priorities that could make it vulnerable.

As The Verge reports, the possibility of Microsoft being made obsolete as it races to keep up is something that keeps Nadella up at night.

During an employee-only town hall last week, the CEO said that he was "haunted" by the story of Digital Equipment Corporation, a computer company in the early 1970s that was swiftly made obsolete by the likes of IBM after it made significant strategic errors.

Nadella explained that "some of the people who contributed to Windows NT came from a DEC lab that was laid off," as quoted by The Verge, referring to a proprietary and era-defining operating system Microsoft released in 1993.

His comments invoke the frantic contemporary scramble to hire new AI talent, with companies willing to spend astronomical amounts of money to poach workers from their competitors.

The pressure on Microsoft to reinvent itself in the AI era is only growing. Last month, billionaire Elon Musk announced that his latest AI project was called "Macrohard," a tongue-in-cheek jab squarely aimed at the tech giant.

"In principle, given that software companies like Microsoft do not themselves manufacture any physical hardware, it should be possible to simulate them entirely with AI," Musk mused late last month.

While it remains to be seen how successful Musk's attempts to simulate products like Microsoft's Office suite using AI will turn out to be, Nadella said he's willing to cut his losses if a product were to ever be made redundant.

"All the categories that we may have even loved for 40 years may not matter," he told employees at the town hall. "Us as a company, us as leaders, knowing that we are really only going to be valuable going forward if we build what’s secular in terms of the expectation, instead of being in love with whatever we’ve built in the past."

For now, Microsoft remains all-in on AI as it races to keep up. Earlier this year, Microsoft reiterated its plans to allocate a whopping $80 billion of its cash to supporting AI data centers — significantly more than some of its competitors, including Google and Meta, were willing to put up.

Complicating matters is its relationship with OpenAI, which has repeatedly been tested. OpenAI is seeking Microsoft's approval to go for-profit, and simultaneously needs even more compute capacity for its models than Microsoft could offer up, straining the multibillion-dollar partnership.

Last week, the two companies signed a vaguely-worded "non-binding memorandum of understanding," as they are "actively working to finalize contractual terms in a definitive agreement."

In short, Nadella's Microsoft continues to find itself in an awkward position as it tries to cement its own position and remain relevant in a quickly evolving tech landscape.

You can feel his anxiety: as the tech industry's history has shown, the winners will score big — while the losers, like DEC, become nothing more than a footnote.

More on Microsoft: After 9,000 Layoffs, Microsoft Boss Has Brutal Advice for Sacked Workers

The post Microsoft CEO Concerned AI Will Destroy the Entire Company appeared first on Futurism.

The possibility of Microsoft being made obsolete as it races to keep up is something that keeps

[Don Green] It’s about time [youtube video]

Don Green — 9/16/2025 5:24:52 AM

[zax] Microsoft Escapes EU Competition Probe by Unbundling Teams for Seven Years, Open...

zax — 9/14/2025 3:42:27 PM

Microsoft Escapes EU Competition Probe by Unbundling Teams for Seven Years, Opening API

slashdot.org

TechCrunch reports:

Thanks to a pledge to unbundle its corporate messaging app Teams from its productivity suites, Microsoft has managed to slip unscathed through a major antitrust investigation by the European Commission that could have resulted in massive fines for the tech giant.

The Commission on Friday okayed Microsoft's concessions to address the EU's competition concerns over the company including Teams along with the rest of its Office productivity suite for free, concluding a multi-year investigation that was sparked by complaints from rival office messaging app Slack in 2020. Microsoft has promised that for the next seven years, it will provide Microsoft 365 and Office 365 without Teams at a lower price and will let customers choose whether they want to pay more to add the collaboration app to the suites...

Microsoft is voluntarily offering some versions of both its productivity suites without Teams at a 50% lower price compared to versions that bundle the app, worldwide. And Microsoft dodged punitive measures and a big fine, as the Commission's penalties for breaching competition rules can reach up to 10% of annual global revenue — which, considering the tech giant last year recorded $245 billion in revenue, would have been truckloads of money.

The article adds one more interesting detail. "The Commission has also managed to get Microsoft to agree to open up its APIs to enable interoperability for key features between its suite and third-party messaging and collaboration tools, as well as let them export their data out of teams for the next five years..." The Commission's official announcement says this will "open up the market for other providers of communication and collaboration tools in Europe."

And Microsoft will also allow customers with long-term licenses the option of switching to a suite switch without Teams...

[Don Green] The New King? [youtube video]

Don Green — 8/4/2025 9:03:12 AM

[Don Green] Microsoft Surges on Robust Cloud Growth, Record AI Spending Story by Matt Day ...

Don Green — 7/31/2025 10:33:04 AM

Microsoft Surges on Robust Cloud Growth, Record AI Spending

Story by Matt Day

(Bloomberg) -- Microsoft Corp. said it will spend more than $30 billion in the current quarter to build out the data centers powering its artificial intelligence services.

Investors, applauding accelerating growth in the company’s cloud-computing unit, sent the shares up sharply.

The closely watched Azure division posted a 39% rise in sales during Microsoft’s fiscal fourth quarter, the company said in a statement on Wednesday. Analysts projected a 34% increase. The company’s forecast for growth in the current quarter also exceeded analyst estimates.

Microsoft said sales at the cloud division grew 34% to more than $75 billion during the year ended June 30, the first time the company has disclosed a revenue figure for Azure, which sells computing power and other services to businesses.

The results suggest that Microsoft, perhaps the most prodigious spender of the AI age, is starting to see a return in the form of rising sales.

The shares rose as much as 8.2% to $555.45 as the markets opened on Thursday, a new record high. Microsoft now has a market capitalization of more than $4 trillion, making it the second company after Nvidia Corp. to achieve that distinction.

On a call with analysts, Microsoft Chief Executive Satya Nadella said Copilot, the chatbot the company markets to individuals, businesses and coders, has more than 100 million monthly active users. Some 800 million customers interact with the AI features scattered through Microsoft’s products, Nadella said.

“Microsoft 365 Copilot is becoming the new way to organize work,” he said, referring to the company’s main business-focused chatbot.

Last week, Alphabet Inc.’s Google, which boasts billions of users of its Android smartphone software, said its Gemini AI assistant app had more than 450 million monthly active users. OpenAI’s ChatGPT has 500 million weekly active users, the company said in March.

Even as Microsoft made new disclosures about its AI business, the company abandoned its recent practice of detailing what portion of Azure’s growth was attributable to AI demand. Jonathan Neilson, a vice president of investor relations, said in an interview that such figures have become less relevant as use of AI-specific services like rentals of high-end graphics processing units increasingly spur customers to ramp up their use of other products like data storage or analytics.

Microsoft in the last few years has deployed AI tools, including those powered by OpenAI, across its products, betting that conversant chatbots and more powerful automation technology will boost sales of the company’s productivity software and cloud services.

That’s come at a steep cost, as Microsoft races to construct enough data centers to meet surging demand for generative AI training and tools.

The Redmond, Washington-based company’s capital expenditures during the recently completed quarter, $24.2 billion, were a record. It won’t stand for long. Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood said the company would spend upwards of $30 billion in the current quarter, which would be at least 50% more than the outlay during the same period a year earlier.

“We will continue to invest against the expansive opportunity ahead,” Hood said.

The quarter’s strong growth in Azure “could quell lingering investor concern over the company’s elevated capital spending,” Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Anurag Rana and Andrew Girard wrote in a note. “We expect this to give Microsoft greater justification to invest more in its AI business, with spending likely skewed heavier toward shorter-term assets like servers and GPUs.”

The company’s largest rivals in cloud services, Amazon.com Inc. and Alphabet have also announced massive expansion plans.

During its earnings report last week, Alphabet said robust demand for its AI services will require a significant increase in capital spending. Google’s parent company said 2025 capital expenditures will be $85 billion, or $10 billion greater than an earlier forecast.

Amazon is scheduled to report quarterly earnings on Thursday, and investors will be focused its own cloud results and capital spending.

Microsoft’s overall sales rose 18% to $76.4 billion during the quarter. Net income was $3.65 a share. Analysts on average estimated $73.9 billion in revenue and per-share earnings of $3.37.

--With assistance from Brody Ford.

(Updates shares in the sixth paragraph)
©2025 Bloomberg L.P.

Microsoft's Capital Spending Hits Records on AI Boom © Bloomberg

[Don Green] Great Video [youtube video]

Don Green — 4/28/2025 5:45:18 AM

[miraje] MSFT has been a drag on my portfolio lately and now this.. finance.yahoo.com A...

miraje — 11/27/2024 7:33:26 PM

MSFT has been a drag on my portfolio lately and now this..

finance.yahoo.com

Any thoughts as to what this could do to the stock price, short to medium term?