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To: Real Man who wrote (23046)8/4/2024 8:42:25 AM
From: Rarebird  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 23827
 
The Sahm rule is an infallible indicator; it has never been wrong!!

Sahm rule says that if unemployment rate goes up .5% or more over a three month period, economy is already in recession. Unemployment rate needed to rise to 4.2% to trigger the Sahm rule. It went up more than that to 4.3%.

Sahm came on CNBC on Friday and said she does not think economy is already in recession. But I think she was trying to prevent panic.



To: Real Man who wrote (23046)8/4/2024 9:12:38 AM
From: Rarebird  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 23827
 
I sold slightly more than half my portfolio on Friday so that should tell you something.

I am now in 25% pure equities and 75% pure income related equities, TLT and other higher yield bond alternatives. The later held up very well over the past two days except for the BBB, BB and B related corporates. I dumped the later except for BKLN, which I have held for well over a year and which has performed very well for me. HYG, which I don't own, was down .33%

Things may get a lot uglier. I really don't know. Maybe the major indices go down more than the average stock..

I plan on initiating some short positions early next week.