| To: Real Man who wrote (23063) | 8/5/2024 11:24:51 AM | | From: Rarebird | | | | I'm afraid this decline is just the tip of the iceberg as long as the Japanese Yen continues to rally. Leverage in the system was built on the Yen carry trade; now this trade is reversing. Plus, the 2 and 10 year are about to un-invert.
I agree with you there will be bounces, but they will now be met with selling the next day if not sooner. Lowering rates will only exacerbate the situation.
I sold off a little more than half of my remaining portfolio this morning.
People can say what they want, but I think we are in the early innings of this reverse carry trade and its implications. |
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| To: Rarebird who wrote (23035) | 8/5/2024 1:08:49 PM | | From: Investor2 | | | | 26-week T-Bill interest rate was quite a bit lower than my previous purchases.
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Term: 26-Week
High Rate: 4.700%
Investment Rate*: 4.881%
Price: $97.623889
Allotted at High: 97.35%
Total Tendered: $192,536,093,100
Total Accepted: $75,615,418,100
Issue Date: 08/08/2024
Maturity Date: 02/06/2025
CUSIP: 912797MJ3
*Equivalent coupon-issue yield |
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| From: Rarebird | 8/5/2024 8:09:52 PM | | | | | | I have never seen such strength in the broad market be followed by such a decline.
This leads me to interpret the broadening as blow off momentum and breadth.
I don't see anything here that signals a high probable low ( outside of an oversold bounce).
I am at my lowest level of equity exposure in years.
Is this the Top and a harbinger of what is yet to come?
Harbinger yes, top don't know. |
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| From: Rarebird | 8/5/2024 10:13:12 PM | | | | | | Market always sends messages short term, intermediate term and long term.
First off, 3 black crows over the past three trading sessions says market will most likely retrace 1/3 to 1/2 of the previous three day losses in the coming days.
Secondly, the reverse carry trade is not finished by a long shot. That means there will be further weakness in US and global markets over the next couple of months.
Thirdly, the unemployment rate is poised to rise as the US economy heads to recession. This is all but assured by the Sahm rule. That does not bode well for the longer term.
As I said previously, the Fed lowering rates will only exacerbate strength in the Yen and create a margin call and likely credit event.
When a market can abruptly change on a dime after the A/D just hit a new all time high, be careful, very careful.
3 hikes by the BOJ and a tumble that rocked the Global Financial Markets. |
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| To: Rarebird who wrote (23065) | 8/5/2024 11:00:48 PM | | From: Rarebird | | | | I am not a day trader so I have no interest in chasing daily gains.
As a swing Trader, what I am interested in is focusing on the types of buy indications that signal a highly probable low. |
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