|From: John Koligman||12/16/2019 6:57:03 PM|
|Looks like BA finally got the message that they are no longer in control in terms of when the plane flies, and that the FAA is going to take more time due to the publicity these crashes generated, and how the new system was certified. It's astounding that BA has built 400 of these since the grounding and they are sitting around burning cash for the company. The cash drain must be something to behold. Shareholders better hope more bugs are not found, as the longer this goes on the more precarious BA's financial position becomes.|
Boeing will suspend 737 Max production in January
PUBLISHED MON, DEC 16 20194:35 PM ESTUPDATED 10 MIN AGO
Leslie Josephs @LESLIEJOSEPHS
Phil LeBeau @LEBEAUCARNEWS
Boeing is planning to suspend production of the 737 Max after regulators said they don’t plan to lift a flight ban this year.The planes have been grounded since mid-March after two fatal crashes.The company isn’t planning to lay off or furlough employees at its plant in Renton, Washington.
Boeing to suspend 737 Max production: Sources
Boeing is planning to suspend production of its beleaguered 737 Max planes next month, the company said Monday, a drastic step after the Federal Aviation Administration said its review of the planes would continue into next year.
Boeing’s decision, made after months of a cash-draining global grounding of its best-selling aircraft, worsens one of the most severe crises in the history of the century-old manufacturer.
The measure is set to ripple through the aerospace giant’s supply chain and broader economy. It also presents further problems for airlines, which have lost hundreds of millions of dollars and canceled thousands of flights without the fuel-efficient planes in their fleets.
Boeing said it does not plan to lay off or furlough workers at the Renton, Washington, factory where the 737 Max is produced during the production pause. Some of the 12,000 workers there will be temporarily reassigned.
Boeing last week acknowledged that regulators’ review of the planes — grounded since March after two crashes killed 346 people — would last until the following year, longer than the end-of-year approval the Chicago-based manufacturer was targeting.
Just how long Boeing will keep its 737 Max production line halted was not immediately clear, because it will depend on when regulators clear the plane to fly again. U.S. airlines have taken the planes out of their schedules until at least March. American last week said it doesn’t expect to fly the planes before April.
“We know that the process of approving the 737 Max’s return to service, and of determining appropriate training requirements, must be extraordinarily thorough and robust, to ensure that our regulators, customers, and the flying public have confidence in the 737 Max updates,” Boeing said in a statement. “The FAA and global regulatory authorities determine the timeline for certification and return to service. We remain fully committed to supporting this process. It is our duty to ensure that every requirement is fulfilled, and every question from our regulators answered.”
Boeing had repeatedly warned investors that it could further cut or suspend production of the planes altogether if the flight ban lasts longer than expected, as it has. Boeing slashed production by 20% in April to 42 a month after regulators ordered airlines to stop flying the planes.
Boeing to halt 737 production in January 2020, won’t furlough workers
Close to 400 Max planes were in global fleets when regulators grounded the planes in mid-March after two fatal crashes in a span of five months. Since then, Boeing has produced some 400 more of the jetliners, which are parked at its facilities in Washington state and elsewhere. The grounding, now in its 10th month, has prevented Boeing from delivering planes to customers, and the company said halting production would help it deliver the stored planes when the grounding is lifted.
Boeing shares, which fell more than 4% during the regular session, were down 1% in after-hours trading. Also on Monday, it declared a quarterly dividend, holding it steady at $2.055 a share.
Spirit AeroSystems, which makes fuselages for the 737 Max, was down more than 4% postmarket.
Smaller suppliers with smaller cash cushions are particularly vulnerable to the production pause, analysts said.
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|To: bobby is sleepless in seattle who wrote (3456)||12/17/2019 12:59:46 PM|
|From: John Koligman|
|Saw some articles on their cash burn this morning... If things got bad enough they would probably get government backing due to their importance as a defense contractor, but we are nowhere near that point and unlikely we will get there. I follow this stock as I owned it from around the time of the lithium battery fire days with the 787, and it had a huge ran from that point. Sold around 2 years ago. |
MARKETSBoeing will still burn $1 billion a month on 737 Max even with production halt, JP Morgan says
PUBLISHED TUE, DEC 17 20197:32 AM ESTUPDATED 2 HOURS AGO
Thomas Franck @TOMWFRANCK
Boeing will still burn more than $1 billion a month even after halting 737 Max production, according to J.P. Morgan analysis.Its overhead and labor costs won’t be going anywhere, and it’s expected to support its suppliers until the 737 Max is cleared for flight, analyst Seth Seifman says.“We estimate that Boeing is burning nearly $2 bn per month on the MAX but this will not drop to zero during the halt,” he says in a note to clients.
Boeing suspends 737 Max production—Here’s what three experts say to watch
Boeing will still burn more than $1 billion a month even after halting 737 Max production, according to J.P. Morgan.
Boeing’s decision to stop suspend production of the troubled aircraft was made in light of months of cash-draining groundings worldwide, but the company’s internal overhead and labor expenses will remain and will increase cash burn, analyst Seth Seifman wrote to clients.
For one, wrote Seifman, Boeing’s internal overhead and labor costs won’t be going anywhere. Further, the planemaker is expected to support its suppliers until the 737 Max is cleared for flight, a key expense it must endure to maintain future production capability.
“We estimate that Boeing is burning nearly $2 bn per month on the MAX but this will not drop to zero during the halt,” the J.P. Morgan analyst wrote. “We expect Boeing to support suppliers, which comprise ~65% of the 737 cost base, in order to preserve labor and production capabilities. For now, we assume ~50% of supply chain costs hang around, resulting in monthly cash burn that is still solidly > $1 bn.”
Boeing shares fell 1.3% in midday trading and headed for a fourth-straight negative day. The stock’s 2019 return briefly turned negative during the session.
Shaking up management may not solve Boeing’s problems, expert says
J.P. Morgan remains overweight Boeing shares, but the bank cut its price target on the company’s stock to $370 a share from $400 a share. That still implies 13% upside from Monday’s closing price of $327 a share.
Boeing announced Monday that it will suspend 737 Max production in January, a critical step after the Federal Aviation Administration said its assessment of the planes would continue into 2020. The decision represents the latest chapter in one of the planemaker’s worst crises in its 100-year history, which has resulted in the grounding of its bestselling aircraft after two crashes involving the planes killed 346 people.
The company added Monday that it doesn’t plan to lay off or furlough workers at the Renton, Washington, factory where the 737 Max is produced. What remains unclear, however, it just how long Boeing will halt production due to the federal investigation, causing headaches for commercial airline companies as well as the manufacturer’s suppliers.
Southwest Airlines and American Airlines announced this week the cancellations of thousands of 737 Max flights through early to mid-April, disrupting schedules during another busy holiday travel period — spring break and Easter.
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|To: John Koligman who wrote (3457)||12/21/2019 11:52:53 AM|
|Obviously it's not just Boeing, it's also its suppliers.|
"CHICAGO -- As Boeing prepares to shutter much of a huge factory near Seattle that builds the grounded 737 Max jet, the economic hit is reverberating across the United States in places such as Wichita, Kansas, Stamford, Connecticut, and Cincinnati.
Those cities are home to some of 900 companies worldwide that supply parts for the troubled plane, which analysts say is the largest manufactured product exported from the U.S."
Confidence can't be restored until all its executives are replaced. They didn't just make a plane that can't fly but they lied to investors, the government, and the public about how bad it is and how long it will take to undo their incompetence.
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|From: John Koligman||12/22/2019 10:37:21 PM|
|At Boeing, C.E.O.’s Stumbles Deepen a Crisis|
Dennis Muilenburg’s handling of the 737 Max grounding after two fatal crashes has angered lawmakers, airlines, regulators and victims’ families.
When Dennis A. Muilenburg, Boeing's C.E.O., testified before Congress in October, he faced withering criticism from lawmakers and crash victims’ families.Credit...Anna Moneymaker/The New York Times
By Natalie Kitroeff and David Gelles
Dec. 22, 2019Updated 10:09 a.m. ET
In a tense, private meeting last week in Washington, the head of the Federal Aviation Administration reprimanded Boeing’s chief executive for putting pressure on the agency to move faster in approving the return of the company’s 737 Max jet.
This was the first face-to-face encounter between the F.A.A. chief, Stephen Dickson, and the executive, Dennis A. Muilenburg, and Mr. Dickson told him not to ask for any favors during the discussion. He said Boeing should focus on providing all the documents needed to fully describe the plane’s software changes according to two people briefed on the meeting.
It was a rare dressing-down for the leader of one of the world’s biggest companies, and a sign of the deteriorating relationship between Mr. Muilenburg and the regulator that will determine when Boeing’s most important plane will fly again.
The global grounding of the 737 Max has entered its 10th month, after two crashes that killed 346 people, and the most significant crisis in Boeing’s history has no end in sight. Mr. Muilenburg is under immense pressure to achieve two distinct goals. He wants to return the Max to service as soon as possible, relieving the pressure on Boeing, airlines and suppliers. Yet the company and regulators must fix an automated system known as MCAS found to have played a role in both crashes, ensuring the Max is certified safely and transparently. Caught in the middle, Mr. Muilenburg has found himself promising more than he can deliver.
After the crashes, but before the plane was grounded, Mr. Muilenburg called President Trump and expressed confidence in the safety of the Max. He has repeatedly made overly optimistic projections about how quickly the plane would return to service, pushing for speedy approval from regulators. The constantly shifting timeline has created chaos for airlines, which have had to cancel thousands of flights and sacrifice billions of dollars in sales.
In his few public appearances, Mr. Muilenburg’s attempts to offer a sincere apology for the accidents have been clumsy, prolonging Boeing’s reputational pain. His performance has left lawmakers irate. The families of crash victims, convinced the company does not care about their loss, have repeatedly confronted him with posters of the dead.
The missteps led Boeing to one of the most consequential decisions in its 103-year history, when it announced on Monday that it was temporarily shutting down the 737 factory, a move that has already begun rippling through the national economy.
The Max is Boeing’s best seller, with tens of billions of dollars in future sales at stake. Boeing stock has fallen by 22 percent in this crisis, costing the company more than $8 billion and spreading pain throughout a supply chain that extends to 8,000 companies. On Friday, Spirit AeroSystems, which makes the Max fuselage, said it would stop production of the part next month.
The 737 Max jets under construction at Boeing’s assembly plant in Renton, Wash., early this year.Credit...Jason Redmond/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
“Throughout this process our No. 1 priority has been safety,” Gordon Johndroe, a Boeing spokesman, said in a statement. “We have learned a lot this year and our company is changing.”
Last week, when Mr. Trump called Mr. Muilenburg to discuss Boeing’s problems, the chief executive assured the president that a production shutdown would only be temporary.
But Boeing still faces serious hurdles. The company has not delivered a complete software package to the F.A.A. for approval. In recent simulator tests, pilots did not use the correct emergency procedures, raising new questions about whether regulators will require more extensive training for pilots to fly the plane or whether the procedures needed to be changed, according to two people briefed on the matter.
And on Friday, a new space capsule Boeing designed for NASA failed to reach the correct orbit, another blow to company morale and a setback for the United States space program.
“If it was my call to make, Muilenburg would’ve been fired long ago,” Rep. Peter DeFazio, Democrat of Oregon and the chairman of the House Transportation Committee investigating Boeing, said in an email. “Boeing could send a strong signal that it is truly serious about safety by holding its top decision-maker accountable.”
From the earliest days of the grounding in March, shortly after the crash of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 and months after the first Max crash, off Indonesia, Mr. Muilenburg tried to put the episode behind him as swiftly as possible, telling airlines it would last just weeks.
Airlines like Southwest have not been able to reliably plan routes because of the shifting timeline Boeing has given for the 737 Max.Credit...Mark Ralston/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
“By the time April rolled around, Boeing was telling us next week, next month,” Gary Kelly, the chief executive of Southwest Airlines, said in an interview. “We were a week away, weeks away, three weeks away.”
That misplaced optimism made it impossible for airlines including Southwest, which is Boeing’s biggest 737 customer, to reliably plan their routes. “It was really creating havoc,” Mr. Kelly said.
In August, regulators from Europe, Canada and Brazil flew to Seattle and joined F.A.A. officials for a meeting with Boeing. They were expecting to review reams of documentation describing the software update for the Max. Instead, the Boeing representatives offered a brief PowerPoint presentation, in line with what they had done in the past. The regulators left the meeting early.
“We were looking for a lot more rigor in the presentation of the materials,” said Earl Lawrence, the head of the F.A.A.’s aircraft certification office. “They were not ready.”
With delays mounting, Mr. Muilenburg missed a chance to smooth things over with key customers. In September, he attended a gathering of a club of aviation executives called Conquistadores del Cielo at a ranch in Wyoming, according to two people familiar with the trip. As the group bonded while throwing knives and drinking beers, Mr. Muilenburg took long bike rides by himself. It was typical behavior for Mr. Muilenburg, an introverted engineer who prefers Diet Mountain Dew to alcohol, but it left other executives baffled.
October brought a string of bad news for Mr. Muilenburg. The board stripped him of his title as chairman, a stinging rebuke of his leadership. The decision, the board said, would allow him to focus on the single most important job at the company: bringing the Max back to service.
About two weeks before Mr. Muilenburg testified in front of Congress for the first time, the company disclosed to lawmakers instant messages from 2016 in which a Boeing pilot complained that the system known as MCAS, which was new to the plane, was acting unpredictably in a flight simulator. Boeing discovered the instant messages in January, but Mr. Muilenburg did not read them at the time, instead telling the company’s legal team to handle them.
The messages included the pilot saying he “basically lied to the regulators (unknowingly).”
When Mr. Dickson learned of the messages in October, he sent a one-paragraph letter to Mr. Muilenburg demanding an explanation for “Boeing’s delay in disclosing the document to its safety regulator.”
Mr. Muilenburg and Mr. Dickson, who took over the F.A.A. this summer, spoke for the first time later that day. Mr. Muilenburg said Boeing hadn’t told the F.A.A. about the messages out of concern that doing so would interfere with a criminal investigation being conducted by the Justice Department, according to two people briefed on the call.
Mr. Dickson said the lack of transparency would only increase the regulator’s scrutiny of the company.
Stephen Dickson, who took over the Federal Aviation Administration this year, has had a tense relationship with Mr. Muilenburg.Credit...Ting Shen for The New York Times
Still, Mr. Muilenburg continued to project confidence, telling investors on an earnings call in October that he expected regulators to begin approving the Max by the end of the year. The company had just fired Kevin McAllister, the chief executive of Boeing’s commercial division who had been overseeing work on the Max.
Despite Mr. Muilenburg’s assurances, airline discontent was growing. The next day, American Airlines joined a chorus of Boeing customers complaining about the growing costs of the Max crisis. Doug Parker, American’s chief executive, said on a call with investors that he was working to “ensure that American is compensated for the lost revenue that the Max grounding has caused, the missed deadlines and extended grounding.”
“We’re working to ensure that Boeing shareholders bear the cost of Boeing’s failures,” Mr. Parker added. “Not American Airlines’ shareholders.”
In two days of congressional hearings at the end of October, Mr. Muilenburg faced withering criticism from lawmakers, who told him to resign or take a pay cut. Mr. Muilenburg said it was up to the board to make decisions about his multimillion-dollar compensation. He invoked his upbringing on an Iowa farm so many times that he elicited jeers from family members of crash victims who were present.
In an interview on CNBC after the hearings, the chairman of Boeing’s board, David Calhoun, said the board was confident in its chief executive.
“From the vantage point of our board, Dennis has done everything right,” Mr. Calhoun said. “If we successfully get from where he started to where we need to end up, I would view that as a very significant milestone and something that speaks to his leadership and his courage and his ability to execute and get us through this.”
Mr. Muilenburg continued to press the F.A.A. In early November, he called Mr. Dickson to ask whether he would consider allowing the company to begin delivering airplanes before they were cleared to fly. The administrator said he would look into it but made no commitments, according to an F.A.A. spokesman.
In an apparent misunderstanding, Mr. Muilenburg took the call as a green light. The next Monday, the company put out a statement saying it could have the plane to customers by the end of the year.
Mr. Dickson told colleagues that he had not agreed to that timeline and felt as though he was being manipulated, according to a person familiar with the matter. That week, he put out a memo and a video urging employees to resist pressure to move quickly on the Max approval.
Boeing has pushed to deliver the Max to airlines before it has been cleared to fly again. Credit...Lindsey Wasson for The New York Times
This month, anxiety levels rose at Boeing’s factory in Renton, Wash. Several key tests had not yet been completed, and European regulators would soon leave work for the holidays and not return until the beginning of January. In calls with F.A.A. officials, Boeing engineers began to float an idea for speeding the process: Perhaps the company should ask the agency to break with its foreign counterparts and approve the Max alone?
The suggestion alarmed some F.A.A. officials, who worried that approving the Max without agreement from other regulators would be untenable, according to two people familiar with the matter. When they called Mr. Dickson to tell him of Boeing’s plans, he balked at the suggestion and eventually the company backed down.
A week later, Mr. Dickson brought Mr. Muilenburg into the agency’s Washington headquarters for their first in-person meeting.
There, Mr. Dickson said he had done the math, and there was no way the Max could fly by the end of the year.
When Mr. Muilenburg brought up the logistics of delivering Max jets to customers, Mr. Dickson would not discuss the issue, two people familiar with the matter said. Boeing’s representatives said they might need to consider temporarily shutting down production. Mr. Dickson told them to do what they needed to do, saying the agency was focused on conducting a thorough review.
Four days later, Boeing announced it would bring the 737 factory to a halt. There was no discussion of removing Mr. Muilenburg as chief executive at last week’s board meeting in Chicago where the shutdown was debated, according to three people briefed on the meeting.
The challenges facing Mr. Muilenburg extend beyond returning the Max to service and the botched space capsule launch on Friday. The F.A.A. is aware of more potentially damaging messages from Boeing employees that the company has not turned over to the agency. Other important planes are behind schedule. New defects have been found on older models of the 737. Boeing lost two major pieces of business to Airbus, its European rival, this month.
“This hasn’t been their best and finest hour,” said Mr. Kelly, the Southwest Airlines chief executive. “There’s mistakes made and they need to address those.”
With the first anniversary of the Ethiopian accident approaching in March, Boeing recently asked a representative for the families of crash victims if it would be appropriate for Mr. Muilenburg to attend the memorial. They said no.
“He is not welcome there,” said Zipporah Kuria, whose father, Joseph Waithaka, was killed in the second crash. “Whenever his name is said, people’s eyes are flooded with tears.”
David Gelles is the Corner Office columnist and a business reporter. Follow him on LinkedIn and Twitter. @dgelles
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|From: John Koligman||12/23/2019 12:03:18 PM|
|Boeing fires CEO Dennis Muilenburg, as the company struggles with 737 Max crisis|
PUBLISHED MON, DEC 23 20199:01 AM ESTUPDATED 19 MIN AGO
Boeing says it replaced CEO Dennis Muilenburg, effective immediately.Chairman David Calhoun will become the manufacturer’s CEO in January.Lawrence Kellner is tapped as chairman.The company has been struggling to regain the trust of regulators, customers and the public after two fatal crashes of its best-selling plane, the 737 Max.
Dennis Muilenburg steps down as Boeing CEO
Boeing fired CEO Dennis Muilenburg, saying Monday it replaced him with the company’s chairman as the nation’s biggest manufacturing exporter struggles to regain the trust of regulators, customers and the public in the wake of two fatal crashes of its best-selling plane, the 737 Max.
Muilenberg is out immediately, and Chairman David Calhoun will become CEO on Jan. 13. The transition period will allow him to exit his non-Boeing commitments. Board member Lawrence Kellner will become Boeing’s nonexecutive chairman, effective immediately, a sign that the company wants to keep the CEO and chairman roles separate, after taking that step with Muilenburg in October.
The moves come as Boeing has flailed in its attempts to contain one of the biggest crises in its more than 100-year history, disrupting relationships with the very airline customers that fueled Boeing’s sales boom in recent years to the pilots who have complained about broken trust. Airlines have lost millions of dollars in revenue and curbed growth without access to the fuel efficient planes, which regulators grounded in mid-March.
Earlier this month, the Federal Aviation Administration took the rare step of publicly admonishing Boeing for pushing an unrealistic timeline for the planes’ return to service. The two crashes — in Indonesia in October 2018 and in Ethiopia last March — claimed 346 lives. A flight-control program has been implicated in both crashes, and regulators haven’t yet signed off on software changes for the planes, forcing airlines to rejigger their schedules well into 2020.
“The Board determined that a change in leadership was necessary to restore confidence in the company moving forward and that we will proceed with a renewed commitment to full transparency, including effective and proactive communications with the FAA, other global regulators and our customers,” CFO Greg Smith, who became interim CEO, said in a note to employees announcing the shakeup.
Boeing shares were up 2.5% on Monday after Boeing announced the changes.
The FAA declined to comment on Muilenburg’s firing but said the agency continues to work with other international aviation safety regulators to review the proposed changes.
“Our first priority is safety, and we have set no timeframe for when the work will be completed,” the agency said in a statement.
“We expect that Boeing will support that process by focusing on the quality and timeliness of data submittals for FAA review, as well as being transparent in its relationship with the FAA as safety regulator.”
Dave Calhoun, Chairman of Boeing
Adam Jeffery | CNBC
The resulting turmoil from the crashes has consumed Boeing. The two crashes sparked numerous investigations, including a federal criminal probe, about the aircraft’s development and certification by the Federal Aviation Administration in 2017. Earlier this month, Boeing said it would suspend production of the 737 Max early next year, the latest sign of how the crisis is rippling through the company’s supply chain.
Boeing had for months resisted calls to replace Muilenburg. The board removed him as chairman in October saying he could better focus on bringing the Max back to service, a process that has been delayed by additional questions from regulators. Earlier this month, the FAA’s chief said he would not rule out fining Boeing for failure to make disclosures about the 737 Max.
Muilenburg, an engineer, became CEO in 2015 and had been with the company since he was an intern.
Boeing replaced the head of its commercial airplane unit, Kevin McAllister, shortly after removing Muilenburg as chairman. Stan Deal, a three-decade Boeing employee who most recently led its global services business, replaced McAllister.
In addition to the Max problem, Boeing suffered a major embarrassment this weekend with its Starliner space capsule. Its autonomous flight control system fired at the wrong time shortly after launch, putting Starliner in the wrong orbit. A planned docking with the International Space Station to deliver supplies had to be aborted. The craft did safely return to Earth on Sunday.
Here is the text of Smith’s note to employees:
Colleagues, This morning, Boeing announced leadership changes made by our Board of Directors:
Dave Calhoun, currently Chairman of the Board, will become Chief Executive Officer of Boeing on January 13, 2020.
Larry Kellner, currently a Board director, will become Chairman of the Board effective immediately.
Dennis Muilenburg has resigned from his positions as CEO and Board director effective immediately.
I will serve as interim CEO during the brief transition period as Dave Calhoun prepares to assume leadership of the company.
The Board determined that a change in leadership was necessary to restore confidence in the company moving forward and that we will proceed with a renewed commitment to full transparency, including effective and proactive communications with the FAA, other global regulators and our customers.
On a personal note, I want to extend my deep gratitude to Dennis for his deep and abiding commitment to Boeing as CEO over these past four years, and for his nearly 35 years of service to the company. Dennis gave his all to the company under extraordinarily difficult circumstances. I look forward to working closely with Dave Calhoun, whom I have known for a very long time.
Dave and I share a mutual respect for one another, and I know we will work well together as we chart a new direction for Boeing. This has obviously been a difficult time for our company, and our people have pulled together in extraordinary ways. Over the next few weeks as we transition to new leadership, I am committed to ensuring above all that we meet the needs of our stakeholders – especially our regulators, customers and employees – with transparency and humility.
I am confident in our new leadership and I believe in our team -- we have a plan in place, and it is very important that all of us remain focused on the tasks at hand. While this has been an extremely difficult year for all of us at Boeing, I firmly believe we are taking the right steps to reinforce the best in our values and to put the Company on the right path for a strong future. While today brings important changes for our company, I am also reminded of the many things that will remain exactly the same.
We will continue to operate according to our purpose and values in service of our customers, business partners, regulators, and other stakeholders. I want to thank you for going above and beyond expectations during what has been an extremely challenging year. I hope you are able to enjoy some time with loved ones and friends during these holidays. I am so proud to work alongside you all as part of this great company.
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|To: John Koligman who wrote (3460)||12/23/2019 5:50:37 PM|
|This whole controversy is amusing to me (other than the people who were guinea pigs and died). Its a microcosm of the stock market and business in general in the US.|
After the second crash when information about the new engines came out it was clear to me what happened. Probably for two reason:
1) I have a degree in design, I was very good at 3D software in college, similar to CAD software
2) I'm a contractor who works on lots of remodels
So I know that when money is involved, people will try to take shortcuts. Sometimes you "HAVE TO". And I didn't think Boeing was going to be able to solve it with software.
Many of my clients build stuff then ask me if they built it correctly... when they ask me that question... I KNOW IMMEDIATELY they didn't build it right because they didn't ask me FIRST... never fails, its always wrong, this is especially true on decks. I'm a waterproofer. I almost NEVER saw a deck done correctly for tile. Less than 1%. Some worse than others, you can do some, but, it got so bad we completely stopped doing them. Too risky, costs too much to go out and explain to the general contractor why he has to lose money because he didn't think to consult me BEFORE he built it... they always thought I was too careful, some even threatened to kick my ass if I wouldn't do the job. Got old.
When that deck in Berkeley collapsed killing five students I immediately knew the cause. It wasn't the waterproofing it was water blowing in at the threshold, which is also the fulcrum. The failure point. I think the waterproofer was probably blamed even though it wasn't his fault. The only way to fix that would be to water proof the whole room inside the apartment and no general will pay for that. Nightmare for that poor scape goat water proofer. He was thinking he risked a leak... when he really risked killing people. Insurance won't cover that.
Its all about money... those general contractors AREN'T going to tear apart their work, and rebuild it correctly. Never happen. ALL the contractors I dealt with wanted me to "FIX" a problem that often could not be fixed. I walked away from a lot of jobs that I KNEW were going to leak, no matter what I did to fix them, still do................... in my business it doesn't matter how many signatures I get, I'm responsible, and its ILLEGAL for me to half ass a job like that. Unlike Boeing I could lose my license, my whole business.
So when it came out that Boeing hadn't redesigned their wings and the rest of the jet to accommodate these new very different lower fuel, much larger engines I knew what happened.
The Executives ordered the software people to "FIX" the problem. They weren't going to retool to make different wings let alone the fuselage. It was obvious to me they were half assing it to save money... and in doing so those pilots, and flight attendants, and passengers were the beta testers... and they died horrible deaths because of money. I wouldn't call it greed per se, its just the nature of capitalism. Risk vs reward. The rewards were big... the risks were well... they put that out of their minds.
So now its been almost a year an everyone STILL thinks its software... if it was software they would have fixed it in a couple of months. It should be obvious... its not software... its fluid dynamics.
For almost a year their fluid dynamics physicists and coders have been trying to figure out a way to get around the laws of fluid dynamics... every software fix they try causes other problems... fluid dynamics is one of the most complicated physics there is. Climate and weather scientists use the most powerful super computers and sophisticated algorithms and still have problems getting it 100% right.
They've tried adding sensors, they've tried to add software to "FIX" the problems that new software adds, and software to "FIX" the fixes fixing the fixes... ad infinitum. I had to do that with 3D software in college, but lives and profits were not at stake. Boeing will do anything except fix the hardware.
I thought from right after the second crash they wouldn't be able to do it. BOTTOM LINE the only way to fix these jets is to put older engines on them, the ones they were designed for, or redesign the wings and fuselage.
Neither will work... old engines defeat the reason for the 737 Max, fuel economy... remodeling them is too expensive, probably more expensive than building them from scratch. So also BOTTOM LINE these jets are probably going to be permanently grounded.
Or at least they should be, I'd never fly in one...
If they are approved, I'd hate to be a pilot or a flight attendant who is ordered to fly one. That's a risk (your life) vs reward (keeping your job) decision that I'm sure they are dreading.
And in the microcosm of the stock market today... Boeing is UP... because they decided Muilenburg is going to be the scapegoat... that should fix it. They found their scape goat, they "FIXED" the stock problem.
All hail the collective wisdom of the stock market... its all perception and some people are going to make a lot of money understanding the problem isn't "FIXED" but perception IS "FIXED"... at least temporarily. Good enough for a little bottom feeding profits.
The real responsibility is the whole idea that a corporation is "human" (according to the supreme court). Its not. Corporations have no morality. They exist to make profit and to protect executives from criminal and civil prosecution.
Everything Boeing makes is part of their culture... and that makes me suspicious of all of their jets now. They half ass things because they "HAVE TO"... its the nature of competition, who can get it closer.
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|To: Doren who wrote (3461)||12/23/2019 7:25:50 PM|
|From: John Koligman|
"And I didn't think Boeing was going to be able to solve it with software."
If that turns out to be the case the market does not yet see it. I know that some military planes are 'inherently unstable' and are designed to be flown with computers that move control surfaces. I have no idea how much of that kind of design is 'acceptable' in the civilian aviation world. That said, if you turn out to be correct the stock will be absolutely crushed. They will fight like hell to not let that happen to their cash cow.
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