>>.. CDMA will essentially replace landline telephones for the purposes of voice communication in the United States. This, along with the facts that Qualcomm owns IS-95 CDMA, is one of the largest manufacturers of CDMA phones and will soon be a major manufacturer of CDMA infrastructure equipment leads me to believe that Qualcomm will prosper.
I'm not sure CDMA will replace landlines, but Qualcomm is so well situated that your conclusion appears safe. You seem to think that QCOM will benefit wonderfully through its ownership of the key to a technically dominant means for wireless voice communication: CDMA. I am beginning to think that the voice communication will prove to be a minor aspect of the full utilization of wireless communication.
With the seamless connectivity of WLL, PCS and LEO satellites, for the first time we will enter the world of ubiquitous communications. When combined with ubiquitous computing (these are the computers you don't see or notice), billions of smart wireless devices will be programmed to add intelligence to all aspects of life. These billions of devices will communicate mainly through to internet servers, both public and private, comprising hundreds of thousands, or even millions, of distinct data systems, staying in touch and doing whatever smart things they are programmed to do. OmniTracs is an example of just ONE of these systems, which probably doesn't even use the the internet. (By the way notice that the margins on Omnitracs exceeds those for infrastructure or handset manufacturing. Think how profitable the Omnitracs operations center would be if the 4 million daily transactions were to become 4 trillion, even after lowering the unit message handling charge.)
QCOM is now an established major franchise that is busily putting these pieces together. As we speak, the company is developing exotic handsets, and not just telephones, to use with Globalstar and probably seamlessly with PCS and WLL (which will replace landlines if you are correct). The company is awash in synergy. Who is better positioned to endlessly invent useful devices; resolve the underlying communication complications; license manufactures to build compliant devices; sell compliant connectivity software, etc., etc., etc.? Many of these data systems will incorporate email, well anticipated by QCOM.
If you accept that the value of a data network is on the order of the square of the number of terminals connected, you can begin to imagine the coming importance of wireless data communications.
You seem to think Qualcomm will become a great growth company. Actually, the company may be much more than that.
Allen |
