Mq, you asked back in 1996 in the introduction, "Will China be the biggest market for CDMA?" It has taken a decade and a half, but finally, the answer is yes, if we measure it by Qualcomm revenue: <China has already become Qualcomm’s top market, accounting for 29 percent of revenue last year. In other emerging markets, however, the company is still trying to persuade merchants to push legit smartphones with Qualcomm chips rather than lower-end knockoffs. In large part, that’s because Qualcomm-powered devices can be expensive: An HTC phone unveiled in late August, for instance, offers glasses-free 3D-viewing and costs more than $700. “Prices need to come down for devices to get out into the mass market,” says Jacobs. >
You also said recently that Cyberphone prices won't come down so much as go both up and down at the same time as people seek more features right up to the full scale Anita [tm] versions.
The mass market Model T era "any colour as long as it's black", is coming to an end. Economies of scale exist, with cyberphones soon to be selling by the billion. Already 10 million at a time is normal and 100 million a year if we include a wider range of DeVices. Copying Apple is the wrong idea. Doing things they don't, such as making an outdoor mirasol DeVice with Globalstar and wifi links is better.
With end of the Model T era, people will be wanting a wider range of vehicles. There will be the high end Rolls Royce, Jaguar, Ferrari, BMW, Audi, Cadillac, Lexus. There will be the mid range fleets of Camry, Commodore, the SUVs, the vans, the light trucks, There will be the "get you to the supermarket and work" cheap city commuter options. Don't forget motorcycles.
Prices will be going up as well as down. Anita [tm] features will be included in the high end first, working their way down to the low end.
The car industry is fairly comparable. People want fashionable personal transport options, not just a standard tool for getting around. They don't need either cars or cyberphones to last for decades. Technology changes quickly and fashions do too. For cars, 10 years is a long time. For Cyberphones, replacements every 2 years is more likely. And people don't have a parking problem for Cyberphones, so they'll own a motorcycle version, a minicar, a high speed touring saloon, a utility vehicle, a people mover, a bicycle, a couple of spares in case one breaks down and so one is handy in the car, at the office, in the kitchen, in the living room.
Those devices will connect via wifi if available, or femtocell, mini, city, or over kilometres in rural areas or up to Globalstar over oceans, the hinterlands or from airliners cruising 10 km high at 1000 km per hour.
Mqurice |
