Strategies & Market Trends
The coming US dollar crisis
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Persistent high trade deficit of the last few years,
extremely high level of USD reserves in foreign central banks,
and the recent series of interest rates cuts by US Federal reserve
have led to the dollar crisis, a sharp drop of our currency.

Any currency crisis eventually involves much higher 10-year and
30-year interest rates and a meltdown of all asset classes,
with the possible exception of precious metals. This thread
will focus on the discussion of ongoing USD currency crisis,
and the ways to survive it.

Long-term target (~ 3-5 years) if the Fed stays the course:

US asset prices may skyrocket, in dollars, along with commodities,
if these actions are taken to the extreme (as they were) and the country falls
into hyperinflationary depression. US asset prices will fall sharply
priced in sound currencies and gold.

Hyperinflation chart - USD in gold OZ, monthly, is a straight line that
goes to zero in 2011.*&fd=1&fm=1&fy=2001&ld=31&lm=12&ly=2009&y=monthly&q=volume&f=png&a=lin&m=0&x=

Current tentative scenario: A double dip recession, with the second deeper dip
happening as the Fed tries to battle inflationary result of enormous bailouts. For it
to unfold, US has to come out of recession this year. Realistic scenario for USD:
Similar to 1985-95. The dollar will drop to new lows again and will probably bottom
in the 60-s. The grounds: US external net indebtedness is not that high.
$20 Trillion US assets held by foreigners, $17 Trillion foreign assets held by USA.
A genuine recovery after 2011-12 driven by manufacturing (optimistic scenario).
Hyperinflation for decades (pessimistic scenario).

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom
brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only
whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of voluntary
abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final
and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. The
breakdown appears as soon as the banks become frightened by
the accelerated pace of the boom and begin to abstain from
further credit expansion."

-- Ludwig von Mises

The Dark Side of the Credit Boom

"Against this backdrop the crucial question is: where is the borderline between a "good" and "bad" rise in debt-to-GDP ratios? To Austrian economists the ratios spell danger. They maintain that today's government-controlled paper-money systems have decoupled credit expansion from the economies' productive capacities: "circulation credit" feeds a "credit boom" that is doomed to end in severe economic, social and political crisis. Austrians fear that the collapse of the credit boom will lead to the destruction of the currency through a deliberate policy of (hyper-)inflation, destroying the free-market order."
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61134British democracy and USA democracy follow the mushroom principle. bruiser98160 minutes ago
61133 "Why are the BBC running blatant distraction propaganda for the Tory partyThe Pre Beakerite-an hour ago
61132[graphic]The Pre Beakerite-an hour ago
61131Lower oil and gas prices Really... it will be interesting if that happens...I kThe Pre Beakerite-2 hours ago
61130Putin is toast. Rats should consider abandoning the sinking ship.Elroy Jetson-2 hours ago
61129Could I see the latest proceeding of this convention to see where the UK... or aThe Pre Beakerite-2 hours ago
61128As PM May's reply at question time indicated, piped gas coming from EuropeanElroy Jetson-2 hours ago
61127Investing in antidotes to Putin's new nerve weapons certainly sounds better Elroy Jetson-2 hours ago
61126Here is real news data... This is what we need to know.. oh and that LNG is fromThe Pre Beakerite-3 hours ago
61125It's just like David Ike says. One day after the news announcement we get aThe Pre Beakerite13 hours ago
61124The UK is the region where Trump and Putin don't have much control over tryiElroy Jetson-3 hours ago
61123Thanks for that snippet. I will ensure those particular bits of information is sThe Pre Beakerite-3 hours ago
61122 Nope that's you are your neolibs/con buddies "You're all hysteriggersh18 hours ago
61121I think the U.S. Dollar is about to lift off and rally big time... gold is readGROUND ZERO™1yesterday
61120You're all hysterical that saying no to Putin means a huge war. It's easElroy Jetson-yesterday
61119 May is such a tool...-vbg- [graphic]ggersh3yesterday
61118Egads! Can't believe they still call that place Yemen! I thought that the &Joseph Silent-last Friday
61117I don't have a girl, but Don Trump Jr is looking for one. Financial advisorElroy Jetson-last Friday
61116Just imagine your girl hillery lost to him...oh damn it really happened no worrggersh-last Friday
61115Birds of a feather flock together is on ostentatious display with the Trump crimElroy Jetson-last Thursday
61114Wait till we get Kramer.....oy vey Hard to see that he could find so many who aggersh-last Thursday
61113It about ruined my day when I heard on the radio this morning that Trump had hirHorgad-last Thursday
61112There is so much chit on TV, but this recent one narrated by Jeremy Clarkson isThe Pre Beakerite2last Thursday
61111Looks interesting. However sadly I do not understand foreign languages, I did trThe Pre Beakerite-last Thursday
61110Die Temmlerwerke Wunderpille Pervitin war Pilotensalz oder die Panzerschokolade.Elroy Jetson-last Wednesday
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