Strategies & Market Trends
The coming US dollar crisis
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Persistent high trade deficit of the last few years,
extremely high level of USD reserves in foreign central banks,
and the recent series of interest rates cuts by US Federal reserve
have led to the dollar crisis, a sharp drop of our currency.

Any currency crisis eventually involves much higher 10-year and
30-year interest rates and a meltdown of all asset classes,
with the possible exception of precious metals. This thread
will focus on the discussion of ongoing USD currency crisis,
and the ways to survive it.

Long-term target (~ 3-5 years) if the Fed stays the course:

US asset prices may skyrocket, in dollars, along with commodities,
if these actions are taken to the extreme (as they were) and the country falls
into hyperinflationary depression. US asset prices will fall sharply
priced in sound currencies and gold.

Hyperinflation chart - USD in gold OZ, monthly, is a straight line that
goes to zero in 2011.*&fd=1&fm=1&fy=2001&ld=31&lm=12&ly=2009&y=monthly&q=volume&f=png&a=lin&m=0&x=

Current tentative scenario: A double dip recession, with the second deeper dip
happening as the Fed tries to battle inflationary result of enormous bailouts. For it
to unfold, US has to come out of recession this year. Realistic scenario for USD:
Similar to 1985-95. The dollar will drop to new lows again and will probably bottom
in the 60-s. The grounds: US external net indebtedness is not that high.
$20 Trillion US assets held by foreigners, $17 Trillion foreign assets held by USA.
A genuine recovery after 2011-12 driven by manufacturing (optimistic scenario).
Hyperinflation for decades (pessimistic scenario).

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom
brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only
whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of voluntary
abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final
and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. The
breakdown appears as soon as the banks become frightened by
the accelerated pace of the boom and begin to abstain from
further credit expansion."

-- Ludwig von Mises

The Dark Side of the Credit Boom

"Against this backdrop the crucial question is: where is the borderline between a "good" and "bad" rise in debt-to-GDP ratios? To Austrian economists the ratios spell danger. They maintain that today's government-controlled paper-money systems have decoupled credit expansion from the economies' productive capacities: "circulation credit" feeds a "credit boom" that is doomed to end in severe economic, social and political crisis. Austrians fear that the collapse of the credit boom will lead to the destruction of the currency through a deliberate policy of (hyper-)inflation, destroying the free-market order."
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60410 Camden flats being evacuated over cladding More than 800 homes in tower blocks The Pre Beakerite1yesterday
60408My two fav movies scenes from "The Network". This must be the discussThe Pre Beakerite1Thursday
60407many here at SI still believe the great recession was only a recession and that ggersh-Wednesday Pre Beakerite-Wednesday
60405bafflers... via zero: --there is urgent need for an independent, public inquirymarcher4Wednesday
60404To use the phrase "conspiracy theory" just because I use solid data ofThe Pre Beakerite-Tuesday
60403You call me an idiot, in violation of terms of service here, for my observation,Valuepro-Tuesday
60402 [graphic]ggersh1Tuesday
60401youtube.comThe Pre Beakerite1Tuesday
60400[youtube video] truthdig.comggersh2Tuesday
60399[youtube video] caucus99percent.comggersh1Tuesday Pre Beakerite-Tuesday
60397The chain event process of accepting responsibility in an accident. I learned tThe Pre Beakerite-Tuesday
60396Why all the conspiracy theories Excuse me? Conspiracy theories ??? what are yThe Pre Beakerite-Tuesday
60395The suppression of information about the San Francisco earthquake was financial.Elroy Jetson-Tuesday
60394Why all the conspiracy theories involving unaccounted for people in the apartmenValuepro-Monday
60393UFB......only in that no one has been hanged for murder.ggersh-Monday
60392amerika home of the CIA run by the whores who want only war and control of the pggersh-Monday
60391These billionaires... it's a disgrace the mess and lack of decent hygiene soThe Pre Beakerite1Monday
60390Here is the scope of whats going on in the UK Pre Beakerite-Monday
60389Thanks for the story link. It's amazing they got out alive. Unimaginable difThe Pre Beakerite1Monday
60388Agreed..... originally at NC nakedcapitalism.comggersh-Monday
60387 I worked for a major retailing chain about 2005 as a contractor, I had to visiThe Pre Beakerite-Monday
60386yep baffle with bs usually works... outside of Enron, WorldCom, when was the laggersh-Monday
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