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John P's Market Laboratory
An SI Board Since January 2000
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Emcee:  John P Type:  Moderated
THE 10 YEAR WEEKLY CHART OF THE "BIG 3 " Global Bond Markets

The turn on a dime top in price --- bottom in Yield in the Big 3 Global Bond Markets






The 1 year chart of daily YIELD action amplifies the wild thrashing by Japan and Germany (the ECB)







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Here is the my Proprietary SPX JJP ATR cross of the Eur/JPY :$WTIC correlation chart. The methodology
reinforces the case that we experienced a bear market and has a very good track record. I explained how
the chart works in a post on 3/36/17 which I have reposted below the update chart, which has become even more bullish




---
this is my proprietary model that uses the EUR/JPY crossrate and then correlates it to WTIC.... so you
have 4 of the deepest largest markets in the world..... the Eur/JPY "RIsk On Risk Off" proxy then as a ratio
of the single most important global commodity input crude.

I have shown this 2 or 3 times this past 15 months............ but it's just esoteric enough that it does not
get traction in the layman and even the professional traders mind.



and it has had a very good record..... when the 14 week Average true range goes below the long term 200
week average true range with is calculated on the EUR/JPY Crossrate and then divided as a ratio of
$WTIC.... what that calculation in KISS (KEEP it SIMPLE STUPID) is doing is showing when the relative
volatility of 3 of the worlds biggest pricing components stabilizes.... it creates the necessary price
stability in corporate planning models and in Global Macro Institutional Investor Models to expand risk
exposure...that is long US equity exposure.



To Clarify the signals are generated when the Blue 14 period ATR goes below the long term 200 period
Moving average.... and that generates a buy a the Average True Range of the EUR/JPY cross / by WTIC is
coming down.. what is nice about this model is that you can have signals that are in effect for 2 years or so
at a time.



The 72 Year Master Cycle in the US Bond Market








A chart from the Oct 2016 34th presentation at the New Orleans investment symposium



Last Month was the 1 st anniversary of the 3 hour interview of Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger and Bill Gates being interviewed by CNBC squawk box

Message 30694656



But be sure of one thing we are in uncharted waters...of pretty serious magnitude.

When Warren Buffet, Charlie Munger and Bill Gates were interviewed on CNBC back at the time of this years Berkshire annual meeting.... The 3 of them were commented that they would ponder what this development of 12 Trillion dollars of Negative Yield Sovereign Debt and the concomitant low yields on other debt instrumets meant to the financial system.. They said they were not Macro economists and did not know.

They did comment that they wondered if we had gotten into a box that we would never be able to get out of... I found it remarkable that you have Munger a 91 year old and Buffett at 86 actually falling even a bit susceptible to the idea that things would remain as they are indefinitely...... They have too much life experience to believe that.I will add that you need that psychological capitulation even among the Charlie Munger's to make the Supertanker tops and Bottoms.

read the above post to see my comment on clueless 3 of the smartest investment minds in the world were as to were the end of negative yields would be...... It's like that at turning points.


To: robert b furman who wrote (18184)5/2/2016 9:32:05 AM
From: John P1 Recommendation of 19159
Negative interest rates was the first Non Berkshire topic that Bill Gates mentioned when on cnbc with Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett.

I was curious to see what Munger would have to say... he said he does not know what it means.... and how long it would last.

Interesting interviews. It was obvious that they did not give their real thoughts as to a couple of the questions.

Everyone is impressed with AMZN... it's an amazing company.

John





Message 31077202





All companies are not alike and NVDA or ISRG performance and prospects the past several years are
diametrically opposed to a legacy company like GE or IBM.





7th & 9th Years of the Decennial Pattern


















The above charts start from 1915 and go to the current year 2016.
Each decade is shown separately. As you can see the 7th and 9th years have been highlighted in yellow.
The reason for this was to show that highs have been made in the 7th and 9th years of a decade.
In some cases a high was made in the 6th year as in 1916-17, 1946, 1956-57, 1966 and 1976-77.
Since the current bull market which started in 2009 is 8 plus years mature, it is likely that 2017 & 2019 may put a damper on the bull and give way to another bear market.



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I believe and Tony Dwyer concurs as he mentioned on Thurday 06/07/17 at 4:06 PM on cnbc what I had
forecaston Wedsnesday morning... the "risk off"trade would start to come of and the potential for :Risk/On"
to reemerge.... having the Yen and Gold top and now we have the TNX hold it's key Fibonacci support and
US long rates have started to rise off that 2.13- 2.15 cluster area of support.

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To: Don Green who wrote (19356)6/7/2017 9:25:25 AM
From: John P3 Recommendations Read Replies (1) of 19372

Update;GOLD, EUR, JPY and USD index: turns in all of these markets at hand --- SILVER is at fractal
price resistance as well.

I'm getting the feeling it is time to scale back on my long gold and silver positions that have been on for quite a few days especially the gold., gold is from a mass psychology viewpoint getting a little over loved.

and it's at it's high from the start of April...... gold is not on sale and way too many people including people
I respect such as Carter Worth are presupposing that Gold is breaking out of a larger triangular pattern,
while he is concurrently pointing out about 20 commodity markets from iron ore, to rebar, zinc, tin etc, that are have all rolled over on the daily charts.

we are at resistance... The USD index has a daily momentum buy divergence and is universally unloved.
The EUR/USD has been unable to crack 1.13 and I have seen other analysts joining in with comments I made several days ago that if the EUR can decisively move above 1.13 we look north for 1.18 in the EUR.. that is getting crowded, it appears.




The GLD ETF has shown deteriorationg in the basic Money Flow index, and the Chaikin is weakening. The A/D line has also stalled on it..... time for me to exit Gold and for those who want to stay ..... tighten protective stops.







and the JPY took a peak above it's .764 level and will stall if the unloved US is going to rally a little bit.

Hence, EUR, JPY and Gold all stalling at logical resistance and USD index perking to life.



More importantly for the JPY it has hit the .382 retracement from the the 8/16/16 high into the the
12/15/16 low at .85002 basis the continuous futures. while running into the lower tine of the pitchfork
that capped it's rapid ascent on 5/18/17, thus the YEN has bogged down....




The EUR has failed at 1.1290....and the FIB Arc is rolling it over.... it's stalling and falling... don't
like what I see on the 60 minute chart in the EUR from the long side.




initially one might not see a price of time turning point in the USD... index..



a closer look shows

The USD index has arrived at the .618 price projection from it's fractal decline 03/09/17 to the low at 98.67 on 3/27/17




as we come into the 3 year Wykoff area the RSI, stocastics and momentum oscillators are giving us
momentum divergence downside exhaustion buy signals.





Thus the I am going to have to exit the long side of what has been a very nice gold and silver trade, I'm going to neutralize long EUR/USD and long Yen. trades, which is also a short USD/JPY (although, the Yen is the Market that is unique and we could be back in that .... as there is are some conflicting time windows in the JPY.) and I do not advocate remaining short the USD index at this point...... at least look for a reprieve rally and we'll monitor price action on the index... as the AUD, NZ and a couple of other currencies have had very big rallies, but that leads to profit taking...... and a re evaluation of the macro and interest rate differentials.


and Silver has a similar resistance zone that seems to have stopped it cold from a fractal decline Fib price projection from earlier this year....... the Money flows in the futures have moderated as well......




The TNX continues to be lower than the key triangulation zone of the 200 dma, the .382 retracment
of the July 6th low at 1.33 to the Dec 16th high at 2.62 and the Fib Fan line. Last evening Bloomberg
had extensive commentary regarding China coming back into the US bond market, increasing their
holdings of USD denominated debt, as the Yuan has stabilized and strengthened.....



so the 10 year note is holding the .382 retracemetent level at 2.13 but with foreign buying coming into
the US debt market and the CRB composite index rolling around in the mud at low levels. coupled with the
bearish pattern of an array of basic metals, super depressed and record grain stockpiles on hand......
we have very logical reasons for what is occurring.

the US exported 1.3 million barrels of crude a day this past money and technology driven by the super capacities of the NVDA GPU with the programmable language and visualization and inferencing capabilities continuously make global energy extraction more effective and powerful.... especially in the US and by top tier US E & P companies.... this is presenting supply issues for any type of sustained crude price
advance. / vulnerability to the downside remains.

Plenty to contemplate for the day and with Comey testimony, the UK election and an additional wildcard that should become apparent by Friday or Saturday... everyone on Wall street and in the city in London, and elsewhere around the world will be busy little beavers.


John






One last thing to ponder.... being in the long bond as an investor over the past 20 years made your 86% more on your money than being in the SPX 500 that was as of Late Sept of 2016......

Message 30754163

However, the 36 year cycle of Super bull increases in treasury prices and / the very low levels they have left us at is going to make replicating that performance over the next 10 and 20 years almost impossible, unless ..... and I will leave a blank for those to fill in who know and those that don't ... you don't want to know or contemplate it and neither do I.... If stocks under-perform in this environment on a sustained basis it will
because we are back in the 1970's, or Germany in 1922, where the name of the game was massive inflation and houses, commodities and everything that benefits from a massive inflationary spike is the place to be.

And The Cryptocurrency Bull Market Mania is illustrative of the Massive Global liquidity Pump.....
Bitcoin, Ethereum... and the growing field of over 200 cryptocurrencies is introducing the democratization
of the ability to create your own Central Bank and join in the game at the table with your Big Boy Pants .... at our 2017 Texas No Hold' em Global Liquidity Festival.


New developments on the Singularity ...... A. I. -- Inferencing and the Global Financial Marketplace.

grab a front row seat...... buy the ticket and take the ride.......

JJP
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194603 or 4 years ago, my Dr. told me that the insurance company would only allow himThe Ox-yesterday
19459The crude oil is in a bear market once again: Energy Markets1. Crude oil entereJohn P1yesterday
19458OX I can still remember as a child in the 1950's having our family doctor aDon Green1yesterday
19457I think all anyone has to do is look at the cost of health insurance premiums frThe Ox-yesterday
19456Haven't had a lot of time to follow the markets closely. A couple hours herThe Ox1yesterday
19455Hi Chip, the DJIA continues to adhere to the support - resistance of the tines oJohn P-yesterday
19454Hi Don... yes the limitations of the VIX continue to manifest themselves as theJohn P-yesterday
19453Buyers beware: Lessons from the ethereum 'flash crash' The price of theJohn P2yesterday
19452Frank, since Sunday night June 11th and then your post on 06/14/17... many of thJohn P1yesterday
19451 The healthcare sector and the IBB have been showing VERY strong relative perfJohn P2yesterday
19450The CBOE Volatility Index is not a fortune-teller. barrons.com cumber.comDon Green-Thursday
19449Stepping up to the challenge? eBay announced today a new Price Match GuaranteeDon Green2Thursday
19448A Wall-Streeter-turned-Googler says bankers could do great things for tech, if oDon Green-Thursday
19447Ox - I updated the chart you linked here to reflect a time forward weekly trend Chip McVickar3Wednesday
19446This ‘irrational exuberance’ indicator could spell trouble for the stock market.Don Green1Wednesday
19445Hi Ox, USD - Crude - Gold -Silver seasonality charts The USD index did stop gJohn P1Wednesday
19444Amazon vs. Walmart saga continues. It turns out, Walmart isn't thrilled aDon Green1Wednesday
19443Elroy, the checkered past of Bitcoin. These weaknesses likely exist in all crypJohn P1Tuesday
19442Lightsped's Liew : Bitcoin to go to $500,000 by 2030....... wow.... even John P1Tuesday
19441Amazon Has at Least One Fed Official Rethinking Inflation Theory Matthew BoesleGlenn Petersen4Tuesday
19440RE- CAT From my general scanning the industry. Inventories by dealers have beenrichardred3Tuesday
19439The Break up drumbeat on AMZN heats up even before AMZN Prime clothing is announJohn P1Tuesday
19438It's global business.... who knows if it's an inventory accounting deal John P2Tuesday
19437RE-infrastructure spending- Bellwether sign? [tweet]richardred2Tuesday
19436Nice.... it looks like you nailed a big downturn in Ethereum.... Bitcoin has stoJohn P1Monday
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