|As I posted a few days back, with the 200dma still climbing, either the stock climbs with it, or things finally decouple down through and we get convincingly below the 200dma. Back in May after the Q1 report and plunge, it was a convincing bounce up off the 200dma, and then the spectacularly choppy climb up until the Q2 report. This time the stock is repeatedly poking through the floor, and staying closer the rest of the time (of course the 50 dma is getting closer too).|
I think Q3 will have some runup because the lure of profits will be enticing, but everything they have said so far has Q4 declining in revenue because of semicustom seasonality, and perhaps miner GPU declines. So I worry that the narrative of growth breaks with Q4 guidance, even though its in theory driven by well known seasonality.
I don't know what to make of the Koduri news. If he leaves in late Sept and comes back in Dec, its essentially taking accrued vacation time, but companies don't typically advertise when execs take vacation, even if they are taking a month+ at one shot. If he was transitioning to a new role, they should have just stated that he was transitioning to the new role, and left out the details of him also taking vacation now. The way it looks now, he is stepping back for a significant breather, and then will decide what if anything fits for him going forward. In a lot of such situations, he wouldn't be back.
It does pay to note, that most of AMD's growth up to this current qtr was off the back of GPUs, as the CPU side, despite the intros continued to contract on YoY metrics throughout this time. Q3 should finally have some significant growth, but part of that is the prior declines make the compare easy YoY. So most the $ I've made off AMD up till now, I should thank Koduri for I think. That said, I don't think AMD is in a great position with GPUs currently.